What To Do After the Climate Strike

Fridays for the Future (https://www.fridaysforfuture.org) - the Friday Climate Strikes continue
October 2 there will be a Global Solar Yatra (https://www.ggsy.in) with 1 million students in over 70 countries building their own solar lights for studying
October 7 Extinction Rebellion (https://xrmass.org/action/nyc-kickoff-global-rebellion/) will be doing actions around the world
Sunrise Movement (https://www.sunrisemovement.org) is planning actions in support of the Green New Deal up to and after the Inauguration of the next President in January 2020

September 20 was a great show of strength but what are we going to do tomorrow and the day after that?  Is there a daily climate practice that can do what we need to get done in the time available?  I know someone who used to write a letter to the editor to some publication around the world on climate issues every day.  Now he does stand outs most mornings during rush hour traffic with his climate signs.  Another is standing up in the train to talk about climate on the commute home.  (“How did Solidarity start?” someone once asked Lech Walesa who answered, “By speaking loud at the bus stops.”)  I have a solar swadeshi myself: http://solarray.blogspot.com/2005/05/solar-swadeshi-hand-made-electricity.html
and have been practicing Solar IS Civil Defense for 20 years:
https://www.dailykos.com/stories/2017/9/8/1697177/-Is-It-Time-to-Talk-About-Solar-Civil-Defense
https://www.dailykos.com/stories/2007/3/30/317777/-

If the children can devote one day a week to climate issues, the adults should too.  Climate strikes can evolve into climate teach-ins, brainstorms, hackathons, and barnraisings, especially if we have a daily climate action plan on international, national, regional, state, county, municipal, neighborhood, family, and individual scales with benchmarks and targets.

Greta Thunberg at the UN mentioned that we are on track to burn through our carbon budget, the amount of greenouse gases we can put into the sky and still stay within that “magic” 1.5º F heating range, within 8 years.  That’s one benchmark.  The idea that “we have a little more than a decade” to turn around climate comes from a 2017 paper from Christiana Figueres, Hans Joachim Schellnhuber, Gail Whiteman, Johan Rockström, Anthony Hobley & Stefan Rahmstorf.  What gets mentioned less is their six-point plan with specific targets for turning the tide of the world’s carbon dioxide by 2020:  https://www.nature.com/news/three-years-to-safeguard-our-climate-1.22201

However, China may reach its greenhouse gas emissions peak in 2022, far ahead of its 2030 schedule announced at the 2015 Paris climate meeting:
https://www.reuters.com/article/us-china-carbon/china-co2-emissions-to-peak-in-2022-ahead-of-schedule-government-researcher-idUSKCN1VQ1K0
and Norway, Iceland, Costa Rica, Nicaragua, Uruguay, Paraguay are all countries which get almost all their electricity from renewable energy now:  https://www.climatecouncil.org.au/11-countries-leading-the-charge-on-renewable-energy/
Costa Rica plans to be a carbon neutral nation by 2021:
https://www.nytimes.com/2018/09/21/climate/costa-rica-zero-carbon-neutral.html

Job One for Humanity (https://www.joboneforhumanity.org/plan) has a four point plan for climate action starting from emergency preparation and working on up to mass political and social change.  Many of their ideas are not only adaptation to the weather emergencies they believe are now inevitable but also best practices which will also mitigate any more climate damage and improve individual, family, and local resilience.

Lots to do and lots we can do.  

If anyone is interested, My Approach to Climate Change is available at http://solarray.blogspot.com/2018/12/my-approach-to-climate-change.html

Agrophotovoltaics, Agriphotovoltaics, Solar Sharing

Fraunhofer Institute in Germany has been doing “agrophotovoltaics” studies for the last few years, the concept of producing both crops and solar power on the same land.  Their 2018 study results are available here: https://www.ise.fraunhofer.de/en/press-media/press-releases/2019/agrophotovoltaics-hight-harvesting-yield-in-hot-summer-of-2018.html

”The results from 2017 showed a land use efficiency of 160 percent, as confirmed by the project consortium under the direction of the Fraunhofer Institute for Solar Energy Systems ISE. The performance of the agrophotovoltaic system in the very hot summer of 2018 greatly exceeded this value.”

Fraunhofer is also doing tests of solar panels over shrimp ponds in Vietnam:
https://www.ise.fraunhofer.de/en/press-media/news/2019/aqua-pv-project-shrimps-combines-aquaculture-and-photovoltaics.html
They show similar results there, too, possibly even better as the solar shading is more conducive to shrimp growth.  If there are any applicable aquaculture facilities in your state, there might be some solar opportunities available there too.

What Fraunhofer calls agrophotovoltaics the Japanese call  “solar sharing” and have been doing since at least 2004:
https://www.renewableenergyworld.com/2013/10/10/japan-next-generation-farmers-cultivate-agriculture-and-solar-energy/

”The concept was originally developed by Akira Nagashima in 2004, who was a retired agricultural machinery engineer who later studied biology and learned the “light saturation point.” The rate of photosynthesis increases as the irradiance level is increased; however at one point, any further increase in the amount of light that strikes the plant does not cause any increase to the rate of photosynthesis….

”Based on the tests conducted at his solar testing sites in Chiba Prefecture, he recommends about 32% shading rate for a farmland space to reach adequate growth of crops. In other words, there is twice as much empty space for each PV module installed.”

UMass Amherst is working on this concept as well with outreach to farmers through a state program:
https://ag.umass.edu/clean-energy/fact-sheets/dual-use-agriculture-solar-photovoltaics

Mother Jones article on this idea:
https://www.motherjones.com/food/2019/09/the-best-place-for-harvesting-solar-energy-is-not-where-i-expected-it-to-be/
Paper from Nature Sustainability the article references
https://www.nature.com/articles/s41893-019-0364-5.epdf

There should be no competition between active farmland and solar development.  When done correctly, solar can become a lucrative second “crop” for farmers while maintaining and, in some cases, increasing agricultural productivity.

Old Solar: Jimmy Carter's 1979 Green Deal

Jimmy Carter’s energy plan called for "20% of our energy coming from solar power by the year 2000" in 1979. Renewables, wind, solar and hydro, are at just about that level now, 20 years behind his schedule.


Carter also wanted to insulate 90% of American homes and all new buildings and use solar energy in more than 2.5 million homes by 1985. There were 1.3 million solar installations in the USA in 2017 by one count and may be 1.9 million now by another and all low-rise residential buildings in CA will be built to net zero energy standards starting in 2020.


Carter was thinking in terms of his next four years in office. Extinction Rebellion is demanding that “Government must act now to halt biodiversity loss and reduce greenhouse gas emissions to net zero by 2025.” The Green New Deal has a 10 year timeframe.

The argument can be made that Jimmy Carter in his cardigan sweater spouting “mush from the wimp” is more radical about energy than almost anyone in the public eye today.


PS: Reagan won the 1980 election and shut down the building solar wave with extreme prejudice. Reagan killed us. Carter’s energy plan would have saved us (as long as the terrible shale oil component was shelved).


Old Solar: 1881
https://solarray.blogspot.com/2010/02/old-solar-1881.html
Old Solar: 1980 Barnraised Solar Air Heater
https://solarray.blogspot.com/2008/09/old-solar-1980-barnraised-solar-air.html

Zero Net Energy - July 18. 2019

Zero-energy demonstration project in Beijing made from pre-fab timber components
https://www.archdaily.com/907507/xuhui-demonstrative-project-sup-atelier
https://inhabitat.com/prefab-timber-complex-shows-off-net-zero-energy-technologies-in-beijing/

Energy blockchain for 55,000 rooftops in Japan planned, 100 rooftops now
https://cleantechnica.com/2019/01/22/blockchain-goes-big-55000-rooftops-eyeballed-for-peer-to-peer-solar-trading/
Power Ledger - Australian company behind the project
https://www.powerledger.io

Singapore’s first net zero energy building - 6 story building at the National University of Singapore School of Design and Environment
https://www.arch.nus.edu.sg/about/facilities/net-zero-energy-building-sde-4
https://inhabitat.com/singapores-new-build-first-net-zero-energy-building-opens-its-doors/

"S2A Modular in Southern California is building a factory to manufacture modular net-zero-energy private homes, condominiums, apartment complexes, and commercial buildings."
https://cleantechnica.com/2019/03/19/s2a-modular-offers-affordable-net-zero-homes-with-tesla-renewable-energy-components/
https://www.s2amodular.com

Renovated office building in Amsterdam is net positive energy with BREEAM outstanding rating 
https://inhabitat.com/an-old-office-is-transformed-into-the-netherlands-most-sustainable-renovated-building/
https://www.archdaily.com/911575/goede-doelen-loterijen-and-dutch-charity-lotteries-head-offices-benthem-crouwel-architects

Net zero energy church in Iowa
http://neumannmonson.com/uu/
https://inhabitat.com/inspiring-zero-energy-church-in-iowa-embraces-nature-in-more-ways-than-one/

In the EU all new buildings will be nearly zero-energy by the end of 2020 and all new public buildings have been nearly zero-energy since 2018.
https://ec.europa.eu/energy/en/topics/energy-efficiency/energy-performance-of-buildings/nearly-zero-energy-buildings

Eco-Capsule - self-sustainable micro-home
https://www.ecocapsule.sk
in Times Square NYC
https://www.facebook.com/events/999791243558680/

Net positive house in Lincoln, MA produces 67% more energy than it consumes with  -6.3kBtu/sf/yr
https://zeroenergy.com/lincoln-farmhouse
http://thoughtforms-corp.com/portfolio/better-than-net-zero
https://inhabitat.com/sublime-net-positive-energy-farmhouse-pays-homage-to-the-local-vernacular/

Carbon Drawdown Now:  Turning Buildings into Carbon Sinks
https://newframeworks.com/blog/2019/3/22/nesea-2019-carbon-drawdown-now-turning-buildings-into-carbon-sinks

Zero carbon retrofit for Paris 2024 Olympics
http://www.jakobmacfarlane.com/en/project/c40odysseepleyel/
https://inhabitat.com/industrial-building-is-reimagined-as-a-zero-carbon-paragon-for-paris-2024-olympics/

Norwich, UK’s 100 unit Passivhaus council house development
https://www.theguardian.com/artanddesign/2019/jul/16/norwich-goldsmith-street-social-housing-green-design

How Do You Pay for the Green New Deal: Cost of Fuel

I did some back of the envelope estimates of the cost of the fossil fuels we use in a year.  
The source of these figures is the USA DOE Energy Information Agency https://www.eia.gov/tools/faqs/faq.php

But any mistakes in arithmetic are my own.

----------------- 

7.5 billion barrels of petroleum products consumed in USA in 2018

average price $69.78 per barrel

Cost of petroleum products:  $523,350,000,000

In 2017, the United States consumed about 27.11 trillion cubic feet (Tcf) of natural gas

average of $4.08 per thousand cubic feet

Cost of natural gas:  $110,608,800,000

EIA expects total U.S. coal consumption in 2018 to fall to 691 million short tons (MMst)

$39.09 per short ton (2017 price) 

Cost of coal:  $27,011,190,000

Total:  $660,969,990,000

We spend nearly $661 billion per year or something like that on fuel alone every year.

And these are only ballpark numbers, probably on the low side.

With the 2018 USA GDP at $20.50 trillion, the cost of fuel is approximately 3.22% of annual GDP

--------------------------- 

Another "cost" of fuel is covered in the International Monetary Fund's recent report on fossil fuel subsidies, covering 191 countries:

https://www.imf.org/en/Publications/WP/Issues/2019/05/02/Global-Fossil-Fuel-Subsidies-Remain-Large-An-Update-Based-on-Country-Level-Estimates-46509

They look at the difference between the market price and "how much consumers would pay if prices fully reflected supply costs plus the taxes needed to reflect environmental costs and revenue requirements."

Global fuel subsidies were $4.7 trillion (6.3% of global GDP) in 2015 and were projected to be $5.2 trillion (6.5% of GDP) in 2017

China subsidizes the most with $1.4 trillion per year

$649 billion in 2015 for the USA, 3.6% of GDP

Russia at $551 billion

EU at $289 billion

India at $209 billion

"Efficient fossil fuel pricing in 2015 would have lowered global carbon emissions by 28% and fossil fuel air pollution deaths by 46%, and increased government revenue by 3.8 % of GDP."

Subsidies consist of underpricing for local air pollution, the largest source (48% in 2015), 

global warming at 24% 

broader environmental costs of road fuels at 15% 

undercharging for general consumption taxes 7% 

supply costs 7%

Coal and petroleum get 85% of the global subsidies monies. 

Coal receives 44% of subsidy monies

petroleum 41%

natural gas 10%

electricity 4%

"If fuel prices had been set at fully efficient levels in 2015, estimated global CO2 emissions would have been 28% lower, fossil fuel air pollution deaths 46% lower, tax revenues higher by 3.8% of global GDP, and net economic benefits (environmental benefits less economic costs) would have amounted to 1.7% of global GDP."

---------------------------

The USA spends about $661 billion per year on the cost of fuel

and another $649 billion on subsidies for that fuel

That's about $1.2 trillion per year for the full cost accounting of fossil fuels and such fossil foolishness.

That's about 7% of USA GDP

The energy transition, Energiewende, of Germany is estimated to cost 0.5 - 1.2% of GDP per year

Source:  https://www.cleanenergywire.org/factsheets/how-much-does-germanys-energy-transition-cost

How do you pay for the Green New Deal?  You do away with the cost of fuel (and all the subsidies that go along with it).

Daily Reminder Calendar for the Next Decade of Climate Change

Scientists tell us that

we have about a decade to do something

to reduce climate calamity.

Let's schedule out the next 10 years

3,650 days

for climate action

month by month

week by week

day by day

to do what is

ecologically necessary

to restore the atmosphere to

270 ppm CO2

ASAP.

This is a reworking of the end of My Approach to Climate Change (http://solarray.blogspot.com/2018/12/my-approach-to-climate-change.html) which I was reminded of by reading a paper on “German Energiewende:  Power System” I received at the NE - Germany Energy Transition Forum (https://www.eventbrite.com/e/new-england-germany-energy-transition-forum-tickets-59674085797), at Harvard Law school on May 16, 2019.  In it I saw goal figures for greenhouse gas reductions (ghgs) and renewable power increases for both Germany and the EU.

My daily reminder climate catastrophe calendar would have these kinds of things on each page:

Climate goals for the EU:

80-95% reduction greenhouse gases (ghg) by 2050

(compared to 1990 levels, the agreed upon standard it seems)

32% renewables by 2030

32.5% increase in efficiency by 2030

 

Climate goals for Germany:

55% reduction in ghgs by 2030

80-95% by 2050

30.8% reductions from 1990 levels of ghgs now

65% renewable electricity by 2030

80% by 2050

37.8% renewable electricity now, already above the 2020 goal of 35%

(Renewables are the dominant source of electricity in Germany for the second year in a row and renewables have tripled since 2000)

40-45% renewables by 2025

nuclear phase out by 2022

coal phase out by 2038

I know another date to add to the calendar could be Costa Rica’s goal of being carbon neutral by 2021.

I wonder whether people would actually buy a Climate Change Daily Reminder Calendar.  I’m guessing the German Network Development Plan 2019-2030 which outlines the planned grid development to accomodate 65% renewables by 2030 has something like it though.  

May somebody somewhere be working on a 100% by 2030 calendar for their country and the world — just as a thought experiment.  Perhaps those who are interested can work on it every Friday while the schoolchildren are striking for climate.

Why isn’t job growth the first thing climate activists mention?

In 2016 and 2017, the US Department of Energy produced the US Energy and Employment Report [USEER] as part of an effort to "produce the most comprehensive and accurate study of energy workers across all sectors." The last DOE USEER was released in January 2017.  With the installation of Trmp, the DOE cancelled the project.  

In response, the National Association of State Energy Officials (NASEO) (http://www.naseo.org) and the Energy Futures Initiative (http://energyfuturesinitiative.org) worked with numerous partners to "continue producing the USEER report using the same methodology, datasets and research firm that produced the reports for the DOE.”  The report searches 186 employment codes, contacts 30,000 employers each year, and covers 53 different energy, efficiency, and motor vehicle technologies.  

I attended a webinar on March 30, 2019 on the 4th annual USEER.  Here are my notes and some observations. 

There are 3.3 million clean energy jobs
2.3 million in energy efficiency
508,000 renewable energy
254,000 clean vehicles
139,000 grid and storage
38,000 clean fuels

There were 226,000 new jobs in 2018 in these 5 clean energy sectors.  Renewable energy and energy efficiency added 152,000 new jobs, out-performing the economy for the 4th year in a row, 2.3% growth to 1.8%.  

Energy efficiency alone added 76,000 jobs, for a total of 275,000 new jobs in the last 3 years.  Alternative fuel vehicles added almost 34,000 jobs.  

Energy storage (battery, pumped hydro, mechanical, thermal) employed 75,180 people.  

Employers expect over the next year for renewable generation to have 7.1% growth, energy efficiency 7.8%, 9% if they can “find the folks,” battery storage 4.4%.  However, solar hiring was down in 2018 by .03%  and solar jobs declined by about 4% due to Trmp’s tariffs.  Solar jobs, however, are still up significantly over past the 5+ years with 3-4% decreases only in the last two years.  

For comparison, there are 1.15 million jobs in the entire US fossil fuel industry with coal mining and fuels production gaining 650 jobs or 0.9% in 2018.  There are 1.15 million employed in fossil fuels and 3.3 million employed in clean energy today.

CA, TX, FL, NY, MI, ILL, MA, OH, NC, VA are the top 10 states for clean energy jobs.  

10 states generate more than 20% of their electricity from wind and solar:  KS, IA, OK, ND, SD, VT, CA, ME, CO, and MN.  

The fastest-growing jobs in 12 states were in renewable energy in 2018.  

There are more clean energy jobs in Republican districts than Democratic districts.

Summary of the report at https://www.e2.org/reports/clean-jobs-america-2019

Full report at http://usenergyjobs.org

Webinar at https://www.dropbox.com/s/9jgpx73nmeh4myu/E2%20Webinar%203.20.19.mp4 

There are currently more clean energy jobs available than workers to fill them.  The lack of trained people was highlighted by virtually all sectors as a growing problem.  Lack of experience, training, and technical skills was almost universally cited as the top reason for hiring difficulty by employers across all five surveyed sectors. The need for technical training and certifications was also frequently cited, implying the need for expanded investments in workforce training and closer coordination between employers and the workforce training system.

MA Clean Energy Center and NYSERDA workforce development programs were mentioned as good currently working models.  It takes a few years to train people for these jobs including continuing education for electricians, plumbers, carpenters.  Community colleges, military, and labor unions are all involved or should be. 

Editorial Comment
Clean energy technology teach-ins are certainly possible too.  Community groups have been doing self-education and activism around energy and environmental issues for decades.  At the end of the 1970s, the Urban Solar Energy Association (now Boston Area Solar Energy Association http://basea.org) and many other groups around the country did solar barn-raisings.  More recently, the Home Energy Efficiency Team (http://heetma.com) has organized weatherization parties and is currently deeply involved with Mothers Out Front and others on policing natural gas (methane) leaks.  These can all feed into DIY and certificate training, in combination with all the educational institutions interested in the possibilities.

This is an example of what I call swadeshi, local production or local economy.  It is the daily practice of nonviolent (home) economics that Gandhi believed was the heart of satyagraha, soul or truth force, the individual and community strength to perform political nonviolence.  A significant difference between Gandhi’s nonviolence and Martin Luther King Jr’s nonviolence is the absence of swadeshi, a practical or cottage industry component to the demonstration of economic, political, and social nonviolence.
End of Editorial Comment

Energy efficiency has the most overall growth and potential for jobs.  It is about 41% of energy sector jobs now.  More than 1 out of 6, 17% of all USA construction jobs are in energy efficiency.  E2 (https://www.e2.org) is preparing an Energy Efficiency Jobs in America report due in summer 2019.  Cities like Boston have found that energy efficiency retrofits, electrification of existing residential buildings and improved transportation to be the most impactful strategies for reducing carbon emissions (http://sites.bu.edu/cfb/files/2019/01/Carbon-Free-Boston-Report-web.pdf).

Higher energy standards are another policy that supports clean energy and energy efficiency jobs.  On April 18, the city council of New York approved a plan where every building in the city larger than 25,000 square feet in size must reduce its carbon emissions by 40% no later than 2030.  "The new policy will apply to more than 50,000 buildings in the city, including Trump Tower” (https://cleantechnica.com/2019/04/19/new-york-city-seeks-to-reduce-carbon-emissions-from-buildings-by-40/).  CA will have a building standard of net zero energy for all low rise residential buildings in 2020 (http://www.cpuc.ca.gov/zne/).  In the EU, all new buildings will be nearly zero-energy by the end of 2020 and all new public buildings have been nearly zero-energy since 2018 (https://ec.europa.eu/energy/en/topics/energy-efficiency/energy-performance-of-buildings/nearly-zero-energy-buildings).  Over the past few months, I’ve heard at least two energy policy experts say that a few hundred people, the people on the state and local boards who determine building codes, are a key constituency to speed the energy transition.

Over 50% of energy and energy efficiency jobs have median entry level wages below $17/hour.  Solar and wind employ a higher percentage of veterans than the national average, 8 - 11% as opposed to 6%, but women are a smaller portion of the workforce in these sectors, ranging from 23% to 33%, compared to the overall economy, where women make up 47% of the workforce.

Clean energy employers said they anticipate 6% job growth for 2019.  After two years of losses, solar energy employers predict 8% job growth for 2019, Energy efficiency continues to lead the clean energy sector in total number of jobs, growing 3.4% to 2.3 million jobs.  Wind energy is also up 3.4% jobs over the past year.

Jobs in clean vehicles manufacturing increased by 16%. About 254,000 Americans now work at companies building hybrid, electric and other clean vehicles, while another 486,000 Americans work in companies that manufacture parts that make vehicles more efficient.  Energy storage employment increased 14% as utilities, businesses and consumers deployed more batteries in EVs and with solar and wind installations.  Grid modernization jobs grew by 3.3%.

Between 2013 and 2018, support for renewable energy research increased from 73% to 88% among registered voters, including a 30 percent shift among conservative Republicans.
A majority of Americans (58%) say they think policies to transition from fossil fuels to clean energy will improve economic growth and create new jobs.

Nevada saw 32.43% growth in green jobs over 2018.  However, MA solar job growth is down 11.4% and Vermont is down 19.9% so state policies really matter and may be temporary blips in the overall trend, which is increasing growth for clean energy jobs.

Why climate activists don’t talk about clean energy job growth first and foremost is beyond me.  According to the Bureau of Labor Statistics (https://www.bls.gov/ooh/fastest-growing.htm), solar photovoltaic installers (median salary $42,680) and wind turbine service technicians ($54,370) are the number one and two fastest growing jobs in the country, with expected growth rates of around 100% out till 2026.

Healing Earth (Through the Waters)

John Todd, author of Healing Earth:  An Ecologist’s Journey of Innovation and Environmental Stewardship (Berkeley, CA:  North Atlantic Books, 2019  ISBN 9781623172985) (https://www.northatlanticbooks.com/shop/healing-earth/), has spent his professional life building living technologies, eco-machines and eco-restorers, biological systems which "contain representative species from all the kingdoms of life ranging from bacteria and viruses at the lower end of the size scale to fungi, animals, and woody plants at the macro scale.  Working together as a biological team, these assemblages of organisms help us transform polluted water into clean water.  In return, we provide them with extra air and water circulation as well as appropriate substrates to live on or in.” He works on the basis of “that which has been damaged can be healed” and “do good things in bad places,” showing that the field of applied ecology is practical and can solve problems, exploring the myriad ways that informed stewardship can help heal and transform the Earth.

He started with a greenhouse full of transparent water tanks for the treatment of septage in Harwich, MA in the 1980s and, “more by accident than design,” included representative species of all the kingdoms of life in the system. Over years of experimentation, he learned "that a diversity of organisms from a variety of parent ecosystems could produce systems with a meta-intelligence that had a highly specific ability to self-organize, self-design, and self-replicate.  They were capable, in fact, of surviving through long periods of times, possibly centuries, with minimal human support.”

His installations are ecologically engineered, "they are designed with the attributes of natural ecosystems like marshes, ponds, and streams,” borrowing their designs, life forms, and progressions from natural ecosystems.  For John Todd "natural history is not an old-fashioned form of knowing;  it comprises the narratives of living entities that provide the alphabet of the design vocabulary.”

In this book, he provides a pattern language, the human grammar for that design vocabulary, a baker’s dozen of design principles for constructing living technologies and eco-machines based upon his decades of experience with projects that treat sewage, septage, petroleum wastes and other toxics, producing improved water quality at both household and community scales.

Todd considers such individual projects as First Order Ecological Design, techniques and technologies applied to the landscape.  Second Order Design is the linking together of processes and practices into new associations and entities, industrial ecologies and agricultural eco-parks for example.  Third Order Ecological Design addresses larger economic and social structures and their evolution over time.  He writes, "It is my belief that durable and sustainable economies, in an age of resource limits and information richness, can replace the extractive and environmentally destructive technologies and infrastructures of today.”  For an example of a Third Order Ecological Design see John Todd’s ecological plan for Appalachia, the winner of the first Buckminster Fuller Challenge Award at https://www.bfi.org/ideaindex/projects/2008/challenge-appalachia

In Healing Earth, John Todd has given us practical, working examples of how to think like nature itself, in ever expanding systems which repair the damage we homo sap sap (the sap) have already done.  We must learn to live in our ecological niche or risk extinction.  John Todd’s report of his lifetime of observation and experimentation teaches us not only how to live within that niche but expand it.

Projects from Todd Ecological

http://www.toddecological.com/index.php?id=projects

Providence, RI living machine treating sewage and septage with ecological systems design and without chemicals (1990)

https://youtu.be/wC-uqy2qJH0

Canal Restorer to River Restorer (2013)

https://solarray.blogspot.com/2013/09/canal-restorer-to-river-restorer.html

Gaian Design of Ecological Alchemy:  notes from A Safe, Sustainable World (2005)

http://solarray.blogspot.com/2005/05/gaian-design-of-ecological-alchemy.html

A Just Transition to Zero on Climate Change

Here are my notes on two of the best talks on energy that I’ve listened to in some time.  They both get the scale and the tactical outline correct, according to everything else I’ve seen and my own gut instinct.

An Energy Plan the Earth Can Live With
1/28/19
Radcliffe
Daniel Kammen (http://kammen.berkeley.edu), Director of Renewable and Appropriate Energy Laboratory (http://rael.berkeley.edu)

[Part of a Radcliffe symposium on climate and data]

A just transition is a more apt title
RAEL began working on PACE financing in 2009
SWITCH model to define utility energy storage needs
Morocco is the only country which has met its climate goals so far
Demonstrate climate change in a model free way to speak with doubters - NASA's Arctic ice animation over time, the loss of 50% ice cover displays the reality of climate change better than numbers
US-China climate agreement in 2014 was the tipping point.  China will reach peak emissions and then decline around 2025
We have already warmed the planet by 1 degree C [since 19th century, 280 ppm CO2e]
Getting to 1.5 degrees requires carbon negative policies as well as zero emissions [Ray Anderson’s Interface now making 80-100 year carbon negative products and on track for zero environment impact according to their metrics]
CA has had the same energy per capita since about 1978, energy sector has increased only as population has increased [USA annual energy production has been 100 quads or less since 2000]
Carbon and time are more useful in sustainability than money measures
CA does not count large hydro or nuclear as renewables
60% renewables by 2030 and 100% by 2045 now law in CA
All new homes [low rise residential] zero net energy by 2020 in CA
All commercial buildings net zero by 2030 [he is still trying to figure out high rises [July 12, 2013 edition Zero Net Energy links list:  Pearl River Tower, Guangzhou, China 71 floor zero net energy skyscraper, whether it performs to specs is an open question - http://www.skyscrapercenter.com/building.php?building_id=454]

Carbon budget of 600 gigatons in 2017, according to Christiana Figueres
20% (?) drop in price for every doubling of production (in solar) - Moore's Law
Nuclear costs have been rising in the USA in the last few decades [Vogtle seems to be pushing back their completion date on two reactors under construction in USA]
Energy storage is declining in cost as quickly as solar ever did
Kenya is the Silicon Valley of East India
Pay as you go solar is growing quickly - 50 cents a day for small solar - now TVs, [computers,] and DC refrigerators are available [the future is high efficiency, low energy, I build from Solar IS Civil Defense/entry level electricity - light, phone, small batteries - to household, neighborhood, and town systems, different scales of islanding microgrids]
Solar is 30% more prevalent in white neighborhoods even when you control for income
Cool CA carbon footprint calculator which also gives recommendations about how to reduce - also for Germany and Japan:  http://coolclimate.berkeley.edu [We need a World Game for the benefit of all who will allow the benefit of all to work out how to provide bare minimums (and bare maximums) without destroying more than homo sap sap (the sap) already has]
Clean energy creates many more jobs than fossil fuels [and fastest growing jobs in most places are solar and wind, at least as a thought experiment]
40% of all USA renewables venture capital is in CA
Brazil's bagasse biofuel is now extending into the Amazon with disastrous results, food and forest production is being turned over to biofuels [too much of a good thing isn’t, balance portfolio of options within zero emissions framework - zero as an approachable goal as in TQM]
Carbon price should put back some money for research [and revolving loans]


Getting to Zero on Climate Change
2/7/19
Harvard
Hal Harvey @hal_harvey, author of Designing Climate Solutions, founder of Energy Foundation, Energy Innovation Policy & Technology LLC

By changing the averages moderately we've changed the extremes a lot
Electric grid, transportation, buildings, and industry - four sectors [he did not talk about agriculture but it’s in the book]
75% of all ghgs come from 20 countries [about 100 companies responsible for 71% of ghgs by one count - Pareto rules!! - https://www.theguardian.com/sustainable-business/2017/jul/10/100-fossil-fuel-companies-investors-responsible-71-global-emissions-cdp-study-climate-change] 
$5 trillion per year on energy and $6 trillion on infrastructure that establishes consumption patterns 
Converting brown $ to green $ is key [no mention of stranded assets or carbon bubble]
A few key policies for each sector are available [in the book]
Offshore wind smooths load when combined with land-based wind as onshore/offshore winds are different in time of day and speed [see bagasse comment above]
Demand response can make 100 million buildings into thermal batteries [electric vehicles are rolling batteries too]
RPS and grid flexibility are two proposals that work here [microgrids for resilience and disaster preparedness, which we will definitely need in the near term]
A green grid plus an electric car solves transportation [rolling batteries] but internal combustion engines will still be out there
50 mpg is probably the most effective standard, 60 mpg doesn’t buy you much more
ZEV mandates and fuel efficiency standards are the policies here, continuous improvement in standards; don't set a number set a rate of change
Building codes and appliance standards are effective levers [CA and EU net zero building standards, mass retrofit of existing building to net zero standards from EnergieSprong https://energiesprong.org, pilot in NY state, other net zero energy resources I know of are available from Switzerland and Belgium]
Agriculture, iron and steel, chemicals and plastics, cement, and waste management are the most ghg intensive industries
Carbon pricing, carbon standards for products, device efficiency standards [no mention of removal of subsidies for fossil foolishness]
Concentrate on the USA public utility commissions which means you need to talk to a little over 100 people
NRDC, Advanced Energy Economy, CLF, UCS know about working with PUCs

These are the information resources I publish:
http://hubevents.blogspot.com - Energy (and Other) Events around Cambridge, MA
http://hubeventsnotes.blogspot.com - notes on lectures and books
http://solarray.blogspot.com - renewable energy and efficiency - zero net energy links list
http://cityag.blogspot.com - city agriculture links list
http://geometrylinks.blogspot.com - geometry links list
http://www.dailykos.com/user/gmoke/history - articles, ideas, and screeds

Please let me know if you are interested in any of them and I’ll put you on the relevant listserv.  They are all free.

Zero Net Energy - January 13, 2019

Building Off the Grid - DIY Network TV show with 34 episodes as of December 2018
https://www.diynetwork.com/shows/building-off-the-grid

Trondheim, Norway’s net energy positive building, Powerhouse Brattørkaia, "will generate more energy in its operational phase than it consumes through the production of buiding materials, construction, operation, and disposal of the building” or Snøhetta strikes again
https://www.powerhouse.no/en/prosjekter/powerhouse-brattorkaia/
https://www.citylab.com/environment/2018/12/norway-energy-positive-building-powerhouse-snohetta/577918/

Rocky Mountain Institute’s Carbon-Free City Handbook
https://rmi.org/insight/the-carbon-free-city-handbook/

Rocky Mountain Institute’s Carbon-Free Region Handbook
https://www.rmi.org/insight/carbon-free-regions-handbook/

Nearly zero-energy buildings
https://ec.europa.eu/energy/en/topics/energy-efficiency/buildings/nearly-zero-energy-buildings
Zero net energy Project Guide
https://newbuildings.org/wp-content/uploads/2017/08/GtZ-ZNEProjectGuide_FINAL.pdf

Santa Monica City Residential Zero Net Energy Guide for New Construction
https://www.smgov.net/uploadedFiles/Departments/OSE/Categories/Green_Building/SantaMonica_Residential%20ZNE%20Guide.pdf
Green Building Energy Code Overview
https://www.smgov.net/Departments/OSE/Categories/Green_Building/Energy_Code_Overview.aspx

UN17 Village, a sustainable residential development of 400 new homes to Copenhagen, Denmark, “the first building project in the world that translates all 17 of the United Nations’ Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs) into tangible action.”
https://lendager.com/en/news/un17-village-the-worlds-most-sustainable-building-project/
https://inhabitat.com/ecovillage-in-copenhagen-strives-to-meet-all-17-sustainable-development-goals/

Dutch microgrid communities with up to 90% renewables
https://www.weforum.org/agenda/2018/09/these-dutch-microgrid-communities-can-supply-90-of-their-energy-needs/

Zero Energy House - CleanTech Sundsvall
https://vimeo.com/77403726
from http://www.cleantechregion.com

Pax Futura - Seattle 35 unit apartment building built to Passivhaus standards at 5% more per square foot than Seattle code with 50% less annual energy use (and costs)
https://www.livepaxfutura.com/floorplans/
https://www.treehugger.com/green-architecture/small-apartment-building-seattle-could-be-model-solving-our-housing-and-energy-crises.html

Short video on the Netherland's Energiesprong, a program for ongoing deep energy retrofit of existing housing to approach net zero energy
https://vimeo.com/235335180
http://energiesprong.eu
Mass Production of Net Zero Energy Retrofits for Single Family Homes
https://www.dailykos.com/stories/2019/1/9/1824927/-Mass-Production-of-Net-Zero-Energy-Retrofits-for-Single-Family-Homes

Japan plans to develop 2020 Olympics Village into 'hydrogen town’
https://www.ibtimes.co.uk/japan-plans-develop-2020-olympics-village-into-hydrogen-town-1482091

Mass Production of Net Zero Energy Retrofits for Single Family Homes

Energiesprong (https://energiesprong.org) is doing deep energy retrofits for existing single family homes using mass produced modular systems and installing solar panels to make old buildings net zero energy, meaning they produce as much energy as they consume.  They have completed 5000 houses since 2012 and plan over 14,000 with associated programs in France, Germany, the UK, Italy, and New York State.  

 and associated programs have done about 6000 houses in France, while they are just beginning in Germany, the UK, Italy, and New York state.

E=0: Transforming Homes into the Future, is a documentary film project, funded by Interreg North West, that chronicles the efforts being made in the past 3 years, to establish a net zero energy housing ecosystem across Europe.

More at https://energiesprong.org/e0-transforming-homes-into-the-future-the-movie/

Looks like a Green New Deal to me.  I’ll have to see if Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez and my Governor, Charlie Baker, know about this.

After the second Energy Crisis in 1979, Jimmy Carter wanted to insulate 90% of our homes by 1985 and get 20% of our energy from renewables by the year 2000.  Too bad the Reagan Administration stopped that idea dead in its tracks.  It’s one reason why I say “Reagan killed us.”

That energy policy wasn't about climate change.  It was about energy independence because of the two in a decade Energy Crises (1973 & 1979) under Nixon, Ford, and Carter and included much shale oil fossil foolishness as well.

In 1980, the goal was 20% from renewables by 2000.  Renewable energy today, in 2019,  two decades later than that, is at about 18% (source:  http://fortune.com/2018/02/18/renewable-energy-us-power-mix/) .

My Approach to Climate Change

1.

My approach to climate change is
100% renewables ASAP
zero emissions economy ASAP
carbon drawdown ASAP
geotherapy (not geoengineering) ASAP

Resources: http://drawdown.org
https://www.crcpress.com/Geotherapy-Innovative-Methods-of-Soil-Fertility-Restoration-Carbon-Sequestration/Goreau-Larson-Campe/p/book/9781466595392
http://bio4climate.org
http://soil4climate.org
http://solarray.blogspot.com

At least as a thought experiment.

2.
I start from Solar IS Civil Defense, which is necessary NOW
in case of weather or other natural disaster, whatever you believe about Climate Change or Sanity Clause.

10 bucks buys a solar light and charger today, just go Internet shopping. That's a personal electric solar civil defense, the basics of light, communications, and extra batteries. 10 bucks is also the price of a hand-crank light and charger. Add a bicycle charger (or electric bike) and you have "free" electricity for as long as the batteries hold a charge and the chargers work.

More at http://solarray.blogspot.com/2018/09/personal-power-set.html

3.

Simple solar and energy efficiency can be taught, to those who want to know, fairly easily and can be quite effective

A South-Facing Window Is Already a Solar Collector
https://youtu.be/FdGAdEq242M
Solar windowbox air heater
https://youtu.be/lTOe2OYSPlw
Insulating Roller Shade

https://youtu.be/jEh9Bq4qQB8

Six pack of solar

https://youtu.be/KTLBsxI-Xl8

Recycled solar

https://youtu.be/KTLBsxI-Xl8

I used to do workshops on simple solar and broke one down into a series of short videos:

Part 1 at https://youtu.be/IdPftGMNbEA

the others are available at https://www.youtube.com/user/gmoke/videos

4.
Simple solar can become an economic lever and non-violent economic practice, a technological adaptation of Gandhi's concept of swadeshi, local production, what he called the heart of satyagraha. I imagine a solar swadeshi (http://solarray.blogspot.com/2005/05/solar-swadeshi-hand-made-electricity.html) that becomes a solar walkaway or an electrical grid boycott to add a little impetus to the growing tide of Extinction Rebellion (anybody else see a resemblance to the Trainites of John Brunner's Sheep Look Up?) and the Sunrise Movement.

5.  Since scientists tell us that we have about a decade to do something to reduce climate calamity, somebody should be scheduling out the next 10 years, 3,650 days, for climate action, month by month, week by week, day by day to do what is ecologically necessary to restore the atmosphere to preindustrial levels of CO2 (270 parts per million) ASAP.

Zero Net Energy - December 8, 2018

PROJECT HOPE - Biophilic Carbon Negative Residential Design
http://www.greennewworld.org

Technova College opens a nearly net zero energy building
https://www.cepezed.com/messages/680-opening-sustainable-and-collaborative-technova-college
https://inhabitat.com/solar-powered-technova-college-nearly-hits-net-zero-energy-in-the-netherlands/

Glass house working towards net zero in the Spanish desert
https://www.bbc.com/reel/video/p06nxjlj/the-miraculous-house-in-the-middle-of-the-desert

Canadian Green Building Council’s Zero Carbon Building Initiative
https://www.cagbc.org/CAGBC/Zero_Carbon/Information_and_Resources/CAGBC/Zero_Carbon/The_CaGBC_Zero_Carbon_Building_Program.aspx

Calgary’s MacKimmie Tower to be rebuilt as a zero carbon building
https://transsolar.com/news/redevelopment-mackimmie-tower-calgary
https://canada.constructconnect.com/joc/news/projects/2018/04/calgarys-mackimmie-tower-completely-transformed

Carbon neutral house in Australia using recycled materials
https://www.treehugger.com/green-architecture/house-a-whispering-smith.html
http://www.whisperingsmith.com.au/house-a/
https://www.instagram.com/whisperingsmitharchitecture/

Carbon neutral home on the Isle of Man
https://www.fosterlomas.com/#portfolio/sartfell-cottage-isle-of-man
https://www.wallpaper.com/architecture/sartfell-rural-retreat-foster-lomas-uk
https://inhabitat.com/stunning-carbon-neutral-home-uses-traditional-materials-to-create-a-synergy-with-its-natural-setting/

Proposed “Tulip” zero combustion, solar-powered high-rise for London
https://thetulip.com
https://www.fosterandpartners.com/news/archive/2018/11/the-tulip-a-new-public-cultural-and-tourist-attraction-proposed-for-the-city-of-london/
https://inhabitat.com/foster-partners-designs-solar-powered-tulip-observation-tower-for-london/

Harvard’s House Zero - net zero energy living laboratory
http://harvardcgbc.org/research/housezero/
http://harvardcgbc.org
https://inhabitat.com/harvard-unveils-snohetta-designed-housezero-for-sustainable-plus-energy-living/

Near net zero ecocity planned for the Maldives
https://www.archdaily.com/906503/caa-architects-reveals-futuristic-eco-city-design-for-the-maldives
https://inhabitat.com/futuristic-eco-city-powered-with-renewable-energy-is-unveiled-for-the-maldives/

"French multinational electric utility ENGIE announced on Thursday that it had signed a 50-year strategic alliance with the city of Greater Springfield in Queensland, Australia, to help transition it to being a zero net energy city by 2038.”
https://cleantechnica.com/2018/12/07/engie-signs-deal-to-develop-net-zero-city-in-northern-australia/

"Medford, Massachusetts partnered with Solect Energy to install a 235 kilowatt (kW) rooftop solar system on the roof of its new Department of Public Works (DPW) building. The new system is comprised of 588 LG solar modules and is expected to cover 100% of the electricity usage over an average year, producing about 300,000 kilowatt-hours per year.”

https://cleantechnica.com/2018/12/08/the-city-of-medford-to-save-11000-per-year-with-new-rooftop-solar-system/