Renewables
are cheaper than the alternatives
have provided the majority of annual installed capacity since 2012
been the fastest growing job sector for the last decade
generate over 30% of total worldwide energy &
employ around 500,000 today
Coal is 38,300
Fossil fuels around 2,600,000
PS: Solar IS Civil Defense
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=u0mjqjgZ64E
renewables are cheaper than alternatives
Onshore wind averages $33–$34/MWh
utility-scale solar PV averages around $43–$44/MWh globally
New-build combined-cycle natural gas $51 - $129/MWh
Coal $68 – $166/MWh
Nuclear - $141 – $221/MWh
have provided the majority of annual installed capacity every year since 2012
https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S2211467X19300082#bib10
The share of renewables in total capacity expansion in 2025 was 85.7%, down from 92.7% in 2024
https://www.irena.org/News/pressreleases/2026/Jul/Renewable-Power-Generation-Records-Its-Fastest-Growth-Ever
renewables now make up 31.7% of total worldwide generation
https://www.irena.org/News/pressreleases/2026/Jul/Renewable-Power-Generation-Records-Its-Fastest-Growth-Ever
over 500,000 Americans are directly employed in renewable energy generation
https://irecusa.org/census-solar-job-trends/
approximately 38,300 people directly employed in the U.S. coal mining industry
https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/CES1021210001
Approximately 2,590,700 in all of fossil fuels
has been the fastest growing job sector for the last decade
https://www.bls.gov/ooh/fastest-growing.htm
The Bureau of Labor Statistics first found wind technician and solar installer as the number one and number two fastest-growing jobs nationwide in their multi-year employment projections in 2016-2018. "They remain the top-projected fastest-growing jobs. Current federal projections estimate growth rates of nearly 50% for wind techs and over 42% for solar installers over the ongoing decade-long evaluation windows."
Sunday, August 16, 2026
Thursday, July 23, 2026
What Trmp Cost: Clean Economy
From June/May edition of Clean Economy Works
(https://e2.org/reports/clean-economy-works-june-may-2026-2/):
From those figures, it seems like we would be moving to renewables close to twice as fast if Trmp wasn’t in power.
Fact is
renewables are cheaper than alternatives
provide 90% or more of annual installed capacity year after year
have 3 times the number of people working than fossil fuel
has been the fastest growing job sector for the last decade
and Trmp is doing his best to kill the whole industry.
Would be good if people pointed this out more often, maybe even incessantly.
Developers planned 22 new utility-scale generation and storage projects in May 2026, representing 4,038 MW, approximately $6.1 billion in investment, 17,440 construction jobs, and 453 permanent jobs.
12 generation and storage projects were canceled in May, representing 3,488 MW of lost capacity, nearly $5.9 billion in abandoned investment, 18,103 lost construction jobs, and 199 lost operational jobs.
Year-to-date generation announcements remain ahead of cancellations: 84 projects and 17.3 GW have been announced, compared with 58 projects and 13.3 GW canceled or postponed.
From those figures, it seems like we would be moving to renewables close to twice as fast if Trmp wasn’t in power.
Fact is
renewables are cheaper than alternatives
provide 90% or more of annual installed capacity year after year
have 3 times the number of people working than fossil fuel
has been the fastest growing job sector for the last decade
and Trmp is doing his best to kill the whole industry.
Would be good if people pointed this out more often, maybe even incessantly.
Thursday, April 02, 2026
China Plans: Energy in the 15th Five Year Plan
I recently read through China's 15th Five Year Plan 2025-2030
https://npcobserver.com/wp-content/uploads/2026/03/2026-Government-Work-Report_NON-FINAL_EN.pdf to see what I could see.
There were 7 mentions of Xi Jinping Thought on Socialism in 46 pages but the word Communism did not appear. This is a practical document, confirming my feeling that logistics is often more important than politics.
Here's what they say about energy and the environment:
"A drop of 5.1 percent in energy consumption per unit of GDP contributed to continued improvement in the environment."
Starting with energy efficiency warms my heart.
"The installed capacity of new-type energy storage exceeded 130 gigawatts (a mix of pumped hydro and batteries, compressed air, flywheels...), and the share of non-fossil energy in total energy consumption reached 21.7 percent. China announced its 2035 Nationally Determined Contributions to respond to climate change, demonstrating our commitment as a responsible major country."
"We will improve the policies for promoting green and low-carbon development, launch initiatives for upgrading quality, lowering costs, and reducing carbon emissions in key industries, and drive forward the development of zero-carbon industrial parks and factories. We will set up a national fund for low-carbon transition and foster new growth drivers such as hydrogen power and green fuels. We will exercise tight and effective regulation over energy-intensive and high-emission projects, accelerate efforts to phase out outdated production capacity, and support innovation and application of green and low-carbon technologies and equipment. The systems for total resource consumption control and comprehensive resource conservation will be improved, and recycling of recyclable materials will be stepped up."
"In cities at and above the prefectural level, the proportion of days with good or excellent air quality rose to 89.3 percent. With our forest coverage rising past 25 percent, China achieved the world’s fastest and largest increase in forest resources. We also created the world’s largest and fastest-growing renewable energy system."
"We will actively yet prudently work toward peaking carbon emissions and achieving carbon neutrality."
"We will implement the system of controlling both the total amount and intensity of carbon emissions and refine the systems for carbon emissions statistics and accounting as well as carbon footprint management. The coverage of the China Carbon Emission Trade Exchange will be expanded. An outline of the plan for strengthening China’s energy sector will be formulated. We will build a new electric power system, accelerate the construction of smart grids, develop new types of energy storage, and promote more extensive use of green electricity. We will also promote clean and efficient use of fossil fuels."
The Chinese have obviously thought this out and are saying the right things. Even more importantly, China seems to be doing it while developing the products that make it possible for the rest of the world, at increasingly affordable prices, to do the same.
Energy and the environment, electricity and food, are also a focus of their national security program:
"Guided by a holistic approach to national security, the draft Outline proposes various tasks and measures to modernize China’s national security system and capacity. It highlights the need to improve supply capacity for food, energy, and resources, and envisages increases in overall grain production capacity to 725 million metric tons and in overall energy production capacity to the equivalent of 5.8 billion metric tons of standard coal."
As for the future, China plans to
"... foster emerging pillar industries such as integrated circuits, aviation and aerospace, biomedicine, and the low-altitude economy. To nurture industries of the future such as future energy, quantum technology, embodied AI, brain-computer interfaces, and 6G technology, mechanisms will be put in place to increase funding and share risks in these fields."
Spending a little time with the 15th Five Year Plan was a useful exercise. I learned a lot and liked the way the Chinese Communist Party speaks to the people or, at least, the bureaucrats. It is a well written and very clear document.
https://npcobserver.com/wp-content/uploads/2026/03/2026-Government-Work-Report_NON-FINAL_EN.pdf to see what I could see.
There were 7 mentions of Xi Jinping Thought on Socialism in 46 pages but the word Communism did not appear. This is a practical document, confirming my feeling that logistics is often more important than politics.
Here's what they say about energy and the environment:
"A drop of 5.1 percent in energy consumption per unit of GDP contributed to continued improvement in the environment."
Starting with energy efficiency warms my heart.
"The installed capacity of new-type energy storage exceeded 130 gigawatts (a mix of pumped hydro and batteries, compressed air, flywheels...), and the share of non-fossil energy in total energy consumption reached 21.7 percent. China announced its 2035 Nationally Determined Contributions to respond to climate change, demonstrating our commitment as a responsible major country."
"We will improve the policies for promoting green and low-carbon development, launch initiatives for upgrading quality, lowering costs, and reducing carbon emissions in key industries, and drive forward the development of zero-carbon industrial parks and factories. We will set up a national fund for low-carbon transition and foster new growth drivers such as hydrogen power and green fuels. We will exercise tight and effective regulation over energy-intensive and high-emission projects, accelerate efforts to phase out outdated production capacity, and support innovation and application of green and low-carbon technologies and equipment. The systems for total resource consumption control and comprehensive resource conservation will be improved, and recycling of recyclable materials will be stepped up."
"In cities at and above the prefectural level, the proportion of days with good or excellent air quality rose to 89.3 percent. With our forest coverage rising past 25 percent, China achieved the world’s fastest and largest increase in forest resources. We also created the world’s largest and fastest-growing renewable energy system."
"We will actively yet prudently work toward peaking carbon emissions and achieving carbon neutrality."
"We will implement the system of controlling both the total amount and intensity of carbon emissions and refine the systems for carbon emissions statistics and accounting as well as carbon footprint management. The coverage of the China Carbon Emission Trade Exchange will be expanded. An outline of the plan for strengthening China’s energy sector will be formulated. We will build a new electric power system, accelerate the construction of smart grids, develop new types of energy storage, and promote more extensive use of green electricity. We will also promote clean and efficient use of fossil fuels."
The Chinese have obviously thought this out and are saying the right things. Even more importantly, China seems to be doing it while developing the products that make it possible for the rest of the world, at increasingly affordable prices, to do the same.
Energy and the environment, electricity and food, are also a focus of their national security program:
"Guided by a holistic approach to national security, the draft Outline proposes various tasks and measures to modernize China’s national security system and capacity. It highlights the need to improve supply capacity for food, energy, and resources, and envisages increases in overall grain production capacity to 725 million metric tons and in overall energy production capacity to the equivalent of 5.8 billion metric tons of standard coal."
As for the future, China plans to
"... foster emerging pillar industries such as integrated circuits, aviation and aerospace, biomedicine, and the low-altitude economy. To nurture industries of the future such as future energy, quantum technology, embodied AI, brain-computer interfaces, and 6G technology, mechanisms will be put in place to increase funding and share risks in these fields."
Spending a little time with the 15th Five Year Plan was a useful exercise. I learned a lot and liked the way the Chinese Communist Party speaks to the people or, at least, the bureaucrats. It is a well written and very clear document.
Sunday, March 01, 2026
Windspeed
Tornados are rated up to and beyond 200 mph/322 kph on the F (Fujita) Scale
A 1999 tornado in Bridge Creek, near Oklahoma City
reached a speed of about 300 mph/483 kph
as measured by Doppler radar
Barrow Island, Antarctica recorded the highest non-tornado wind speed
during 1996's Tropical Cyclone Olivia
with 253 mph/407 kph winds
The fastest katabatic wind (wind traveling downslope) was 168 mph/270 kph,
recorded in 1912 at Cape Denison in Commonwealth Bay, Antarctica
where annual average daily maximum wind speed is 44 mph/71 kph,
gale force (more than 39 mph/63 kph) on the Beaufort Scale
Mount Washington, New Hampshire held the world record
for the strongest recorded wind gust (231 mph/372 kph, recorded in 1934) until recently
and has an average annual wind speed of 35 mph/56 kph
as well as average monthly peak gusts of 150 to 170 mph/242 to 274 kph
It is the windiest place in USAmerica and the world
In Rio Gallegos, Argentina the average annual wind speed is 15.7 mph/25.26 kph
Dodge City, Kansas has an average wind speed of 15 mph/24 kph
St John’s, Newfoundland averages 13 mph/21 kph winds
Scotland has average wind speeds of between 10 and 18 mph/16 and 29 kph
and some areas have 30 days in a year of gale force winds (Beaufort Scale) of 39 mph/63 kph
In 2024, 73.1% of Scotland’s total electricity generation was from renewable power
78% of which is wind energy
or 57% of all Scots electricity
and 21.9 TWh of power
enough to meet all Scotland's electricity consumption
which in 2024 was 21.7 TWh
In 2024, renewable sources generated 38.4 TWh so
Scotland exported excess power to the rest of the UK
and another estimated 8.3 TWh of wind energy was discarded in 2024,
primarily due to lack of transmission infrastructure
The wind moves
inexhaustibly
and we can move with it
or be blown away
hat tip to https://www.treehugger.com/10-of-the-windiest-places-in-the-world-11889062
A 1999 tornado in Bridge Creek, near Oklahoma City
reached a speed of about 300 mph/483 kph
as measured by Doppler radar
Barrow Island, Antarctica recorded the highest non-tornado wind speed
during 1996's Tropical Cyclone Olivia
with 253 mph/407 kph winds
The fastest katabatic wind (wind traveling downslope) was 168 mph/270 kph,
recorded in 1912 at Cape Denison in Commonwealth Bay, Antarctica
where annual average daily maximum wind speed is 44 mph/71 kph,
gale force (more than 39 mph/63 kph) on the Beaufort Scale
Mount Washington, New Hampshire held the world record
for the strongest recorded wind gust (231 mph/372 kph, recorded in 1934) until recently
and has an average annual wind speed of 35 mph/56 kph
as well as average monthly peak gusts of 150 to 170 mph/242 to 274 kph
It is the windiest place in USAmerica and the world
In Rio Gallegos, Argentina the average annual wind speed is 15.7 mph/25.26 kph
Dodge City, Kansas has an average wind speed of 15 mph/24 kph
St John’s, Newfoundland averages 13 mph/21 kph winds
Scotland has average wind speeds of between 10 and 18 mph/16 and 29 kph
and some areas have 30 days in a year of gale force winds (Beaufort Scale) of 39 mph/63 kph
In 2024, 73.1% of Scotland’s total electricity generation was from renewable power
78% of which is wind energy
or 57% of all Scots electricity
and 21.9 TWh of power
enough to meet all Scotland's electricity consumption
which in 2024 was 21.7 TWh
In 2024, renewable sources generated 38.4 TWh so
Scotland exported excess power to the rest of the UK
and another estimated 8.3 TWh of wind energy was discarded in 2024,
primarily due to lack of transmission infrastructure
The wind moves
inexhaustibly
and we can move with it
or be blown away
hat tip to https://www.treehugger.com/10-of-the-windiest-places-in-the-world-11889062
Friday, January 09, 2026
Backcasting Climate Success with a Large Language Model
For years I’ve wondered if there was anyone backcasting climate success based upon the Carbon Clock (https://www.pik-potsdam.de/Carbonclock/Carbonclock.htm) which estimates that by July 2029 we will have emitted enough CO2 and other climate change agents to pass 1.5˚C over the pre-industrial climate and May 2047 to gegt to 2˚C hotter. Not having found such a study, I decided to have a conversation with a Large Language Model, Claude.ai, to see if that would give me a better handle on what is possible and how to achieve it.
Here is the summary of the resulting conversation.
Starting Point: The Energy Challenge
Initial prompt: Global energy at 20 TW now, 21.73 TW by 2029, 23.2-31.4 TW by 2047. Renewables at 30% of electricity now. What are the effects of transitioning to climate neutral?
Initial analysis: Identified major bottlenecks—critical minerals, land use, infrastructure timing.
First Major Shift: The Efficiency Multiplier Discovery
Prompt 2: "Concentrate on energy efficiency, secondary, and tertiary effects. What about eliminating 40% of shipping (fossil fuels), Barcelona's regenerative transit, replacing gas with heat pumps?”
Critical insight discovered: The cascade effects weren't just additive—they were multiplicative:
Heat pumps are 3-4x more efficient than gas (not just cleaner)
EVs are 4x more efficient than combustion engines
Eliminating fossil fuel shipping (40% of maritime cargo) frees entire fleets
Regenerative transit captures energy instead of wasting it
Conclusion 1: We're not just substituting energy sources—we're fundamentally reducing total energy demand by 40% through electrification efficiency gains. This changes the entire feasibility calculation.
Second Shift: Net Zero Buildings + Agriculture Integration
Prompt 3: "Include net zero energy building practices and optimized local agriculture systems, including agrovoltaics.”
Critical insight: Land use conflicts disappear when you combine functions:
Same land produces food + energy (agrovoltaics)
Buildings become power stations (net-positive examples producing 200-800% of needs)
Urban farming + vertical farming reduces agricultural footprint
Water use drops 40-60% while food production increases
Conclusion 2: The "food vs. energy" and "nature vs. development" conflicts are false choices. Integrated systems provide MORE of everything—food, energy, water, biodiversity—on LESS land.
Third Shift: Natural Carbon Cycle Acceleration
Prompt 4: "Include natural carbon cycle acceleration through geotherapy: enhanced rock weathering, biochar, holistic grazing.”
Critical insight: This isn't just about stopping emissions—we can actively draw down atmospheric CO2:
Enhanced rock weathering: 3-4 tons CO2/acre/year (permanent sequestration)
Holistic grazing: 2.3-7.3 Gt CO2/year potential on degraded grasslands
Biochar + rock dust: Increases crop yields 10-30% while sequestering carbon
Farmers adopt for economic benefit; carbon sequestration is the bonus
Conclusion 3: The fastest carbon drawdown methods also improve soil fertility, increase food production, and make farmers money. Economic self-interest can drive massive carbon removal.
Fourth Shift: The 2029 Deadline Reality
Prompt 5: "2029 is when the carbon budget for 1.5°C runs out. Using all systems above, how far can the transition go by 2029?”
Reality check calculation:
Current emissions: 40 Gt CO2/year
Remaining budget: ~120 Gt (3 years at current rate)
With maximum integrated effort: Could achieve 5-7 Gt CO2/year reduction by 2029
Extends deadline by 18-24 months, but won't stay under 1.5°C
However—the trajectory changes completely:
Infrastructure in place by 2029 enables acceleration
Net-negative emissions possible by 2033-2035
Can return to 1.5°C by 2040-2045
Every tenth of a degree avoided saves millions of lives
Conclusion 4: We'll overshoot 1.5°C, but integrated systems can limit it to 1.55-1.65°C instead of 2.0°C+, and enable eventual return to safe levels. The window is closing but hasn't slammed shut.
Fifth Shift: The Electrification Acceleration
Prompt 6: "What is the pace of electrification of end use energy and how would speeding that up affect the climate deadlines?”
Critical discovery: Electrification is THE KEY MULTIPLIER:
Current: 20% of final energy consumption is electricity
With full electrification: 40% reduction in total energy demand
This isn't just switching sources—it's a 2-4x efficiency gain at point of use
The math transforms:
Originally needed: 30 TW of renewables by 2047
With electrification efficiency: Only need 18-22 TW
This means: 30-40% fewer critical minerals needed
Result: Transition becomes feasible within material constraints
Conclusion 5: The question isn't "can we build enough renewables?" It's "can we electrify fast enough to reduce total energy demand so achievable renewable deployment is sufficient?" This is a much more solvable problem.
Sixth Shift: Integrating All Climate Solutions
Prompt 7: "Using all solutions from drawdown.org/explorer and synergies between them, estimate the effect on the carbon budget by 2029.”
Comprehensive integration revealed:
Emergency Brake solutions: 11-16 Gt CO2/year potential
When combined with efficiency/electrification: 17.6-27.1 Gt CO2/year possible
But realistically by 2029: 13.5-20.5 Gt emission reductions + 4.1-6.6 Gt drawdown
Total potential: 17.6-27.1 Gt CO2-eq/year impact
Synergies are profound:
Food system (waste + diet + agriculture): 4.2-7.2 Gt/year
Buildings + energy: 4.7-5.6 Gt/year
Transport electrification: 3.96-7.0 Gt/year
Methane elimination: 2.26-3.91 Gt/year (fastest climate benefit)
Nature-based solutions: 5.44-8.33 Gt/year
Conclusion 6: Taken together with full coordination, solutions could save 35-53 Gt from the carbon budget by 2029, extending the 1.5°C deadline by 2.5-4 years. But this requires comprehensive policy—which led to the crucial question…
Seventh Shift: The Bottom-Up Breakthrough
Prompt 8: "How can it be done without the policy changes*?”
*The policy changes Claude.ai suggested include the following:
Carbon pricing: $100-150/ton CO2 makes all interventions profitable
Heat pump mandates: No new fossil heating after 2026
Agricultural carbon payments: $50-75/ton for rock weathering/biochar
Building retrofit requirements: 2-3% of building stock annually
Agrivoltaic incentives: Priority grid connection, guaranteed power purchase
Training programs: 5 million workers by 2029 (installers, technicians, farmers)
Manufacturing support: Heat pump, solar panel, biochar production scaling
International finance: $500B/year for developing nation deployment
None of these policy changes, I believe, will be available by 2029.
Paradigm shift: Voluntary action through economic self-interest can achieve 6.2-9.3 Gt CO2/year impact:
Pure economic winners (deploy for profit):
Solar/wind (now cheapest energy): 1.5-2.0 Gt/year
LEDs, building efficiency: 0.5-0.6 Gt/year
Heat pumps (in high-cost heating markets): 0.4-0.5 Gt/year
EVs (lower total ownership cost): 0.8-1.2 Gt/year
Corporate voluntary action (market pressure):
Supply chain requirements from major buyers: 0.3-0.5 Gt/year
Investor ESG pressure: 0.4-0.6 Gt/year
Individual/community action:
Dietary shifts, food waste reduction: 0.7-1.3 Gt/year
Transportation changes: 0.2-0.4 Gt/year
Geotherapy (farmer-driven):
Rock weathering + biochar for yield gains: 0.25-0.5 Gt/year drawdown
Conclusion 7: Voluntary action driven by economic self-interest can achieve 30-50% of what comprehensive policy would accomplish. Not enough alone, but creates tipping points that make policy inevitable.
Eighth Shift: The Justice Accelerator
Prompt 9: "Look at speeding this energy and carbon transition from the poorest on up as the priority.”
The paradox discovered: Starting with the poorest 2.5 billion people is actually FASTER and MORE EFFECTIVE:
Why it works:
No legacy infrastructure to retire (direct to best technology)
Lower costs (mini-grids 3-5x cheaper than grid extension)
Faster deployment (3-6 months vs. 3-5 years)
Immediate economic benefits drive adoption
Creates economies of scale benefiting wealthy countries
Three priority interventions:
Clean cooking (2.3B people): $8B/year → 1.0-1.5 Gt CO2/year
Saves 3.7 million lives annually
Stops deforestation from fuel gathering
Frees women from 40 hrs/week fuel collection
Solar mini-grids (200M people): $5-7B/year → 0.3-0.4 Gt CO2/year
Already cheaper than diesel/kerosene
15-20 GW distributed capacity
Economic multiplier: $1 generates $3-5 activity
Smallholder geotherapy (150-200M hectares): $3-5B/year → 0.9-1.2 Gt drawdown
Doubles crop yields
Farmers adopt for profit, not climate
Spreads virally through communities
Total bottom-up impact: 3.0-4.4 Gt CO2/year for $57-80 billion (0.8% of annual military spending)
Conclusion 8: The fastest path to global decarbonization runs through the villages of Africa and Asia, not the boardrooms of New York and Beijing. This solves climate + energy poverty + food security + air pollution + gender inequality simultaneously.
Ninth Shift: Real-World Validation
Prompt 10: "Use the references at zeronetenrg.blogspot.com, cityag.blogspot.com, solarray.blogspot.com”
Critical validation: Every solution is ALREADY WORKING somewhere:
Net-positive buildings exist:
Swiss houses producing 687%, 817% of energy consumed
1765 building retrofitted to 345% production
30+ year old solar panels still performing
Agrivoltaics advancing rapidly:
Quantum dot solar: 40% lettuce yield increase
Transparent solar: 93% yield increases for multiple crops
Successful cattle grazing, tomatoes, shrimp under panels
Regenerative systems proven:
Barcelona: 41% energy recovery from transit braking
Electric school buses as grid assets
Vehicle-to-grid deployed at scale
Urban agriculture at scale:
Cleveland: 80% of vacant lots could provide 22-48% of produce
Vertical farms 76-116x more productive per area
District energy working:
Danish city-scale heat pumps
US utility-owned geothermal networks
Vienna's integrated systems
Conclusion 9: The challenge isn't technology development—it's REPLICATION SPEED. Everything needed exists and is proven. The question is how fast successful examples can spread through networks.
The Ten Most Important Conclusions
1. The Efficiency Multiplier Changes Everything
Electrification provides 2-4x efficiency gains at point of use. This means we need only 18-22 TW of renewable capacity instead of 30+ TW, making the transition feasible within critical mineral constraints. The question shifts from "can we mine enough materials?" to "can we electrify fast enough?”
2. Integration Creates Multiplicative Effects
Combining solutions creates cascade effects far beyond simple addition:
Agrivoltaics: Same land produces MORE food + energy
Net-positive buildings: Structures become power stations
Heat pumps: Eliminate methane leaks + provide 3-4x efficiency
Regenerative transit: Captures waste energy + powers EVs
Systems thinking reveals that supposed conflicts (food vs. energy, nature vs. development) are false choices.
3. Methane Elimination = Fastest Climate Benefit
Methane is 80-100x more warming than CO2 over 20 years. Eliminating sources provides immediate cooling within 5-10 years:
Gas pipeline leaks: 2.6M tons methane/year
Landfills: 1.11-2.56 Gt CO2-eq/year potential
Clean cooking: Prevents 0.98 Gt CO2-eq/year
This buys crucial time while longer-term CO2 reductions take effect.
4. Geotherapy Makes Carbon Drawdown Profitable
Enhanced rock weathering + biochar sequester 3-4 tons CO2/acre/year while:
Increasing crop yields 10-30%
Improving soil water retention
Reducing fertilizer needs
Farmers adopt for economic benefit; carbon sequestration is the bonus. Economic self-interest can drive massive drawdown.
5. We'll Overshoot 1.5°C, But Can Limit and Reverse It
Even with maximum effort, 1.5°C will be exceeded by early 2030s. BUT:
Integrated approach limits overshoot to 1.55-1.65°C (vs. 2.0°C+)
Infrastructure in place by 2029 enables acceleration
Net-negative emissions possible by 2033-2035
Can return to 1.5°C by 2040-2045
Every tenth of a degree matters—difference between manageable and catastrophic.
6. Bottom-Up Can Achieve 30-50% of What Policy Would
Voluntary action driven by economic self-interest can achieve 6.2-9.3 Gt CO2/year impact:
Things that save/make money spread naturally
No need to wait for comprehensive policy
Creates market tipping points
Demonstrates feasibility, building political will for policy
Bottom-up establishes proof of concept that makes top-down inevitable.
7. Starting with the Poorest Is Actually Fastest
The poorest 2.5 billion people can leapfrog directly to best technology:
No legacy infrastructure to retire
3-5x cheaper to deploy (mini-grids vs. grid extension)
3-6 months vs. 3-5 years deployment time
Creates global economies of scale
$57-80 billion achieves 3.0-4.4 Gt CO2/year impact
The fastest path to global decarbonization runs through developing countries, not wealthy nations.
8. Co-Benefits Drive Adoption Faster Than Climate Concern
Solutions that improve lives spread fastest:
Geotherapy: Farmers want higher yields (carbon is bonus)
Heat pumps: Save money (methane elimination is bonus)
Clean cooking: Saves lives (emissions reduction is bonus)
Agrivoltaics: Increases income (renewable energy is bonus)
Frame solutions around immediate benefits, not distant climate goals.
9. Every Solution Already Exists and Is Proven
The technology challenge is solved:
Net-positive buildings producing 600-800% of needs
Agrivoltaics increasing yields + energy
Regenerative transit recovering 40%+ energy
Urban farming providing 20-50% of food
District energy systems at city scale
The challenge is replication speed, not invention. Success depends on information spread and network effects.
10. The Timeline Is About Building Momentum, Not Completion
By 2029, full solutions won't be deployed everywhere, but:
Infrastructure and networks will be established
Economic forcing mechanisms will be operating
Technology costs will have dropped further
Proof of concept will be overwhelming
Political resistance will have crumbled
2029 isn't the finish line—it's the inflection point where voluntary action becomes unstoppable.
The Three Critical Paradigm Shifts
Shift 1: From "Renewable Energy Buildout" to "Energy Efficiency First”
Old thinking: Need to build 30+ TW of renewables to replace fossil fuels
New thinking: Electrification reduces demand 40%, need only 18-22 TW Impact: Makes transition feasible within material/time constraints
Shift 2: From "Top-Down Policy" to "Bottom-Up Economics”
Old thinking: Must wait for governments to mandate change
New thinking: Economic self-interest drives voluntary adoption at scale Impact: Can achieve 30-50% of needed reductions without policy, creates tipping points
Shift 3: From "Developed Countries First" to "Poorest First”
Old thinking: Rich countries must lead, poor countries follow later
New thinking: Poorest can leapfrog to best technology fastest and cheapest Impact: Accelerates global transition while solving energy poverty and creating justice
The Synthesis: What Makes This Different
Traditional climate planning assumes:
Linear technology deployment
Isolated solutions (solar OR efficiency OR diet change)
Top-down policy coordination required
Wealthy countries leading, poor countries following
Technology development needed before deployment
Decades to implement
This integrated approach reveals:
Exponential cascade effects from system integration
Multiplicative benefits when solutions combine
Economic forcing drives voluntary adoption
Bottom-up action can match top-down policy speed
All technology exists and is proven at scale
2029 is achievable inflection point for unstoppable momentum
The Ultimate Insight: The False Dichotomies
Throughout this conversation, supposed conflicts dissolved upon examination:
"Energy vs. Food"
False. Agrivoltaics produces MORE food + energy on same land
"Development vs. Nature"
False. Integrated systems increase productivity while restoring ecosystems
"Climate vs. Economy"
False. Most climate solutions have positive ROI and create jobs
"Developed vs. Developing Countries"
False. Bottom-up action in poor countries accelerates rich country transitions
"Individual vs. System Change"
False. Individual economic choices create market tipping points forcing system change
"Technology vs. Behavior"
False. Technology that works with human nature (self-interest) scales fastest
"Policy vs. Voluntary Action"
False. Voluntary action creates proof of concept that makes policy inevitableThe Implementation Formula
Success = Proven Examples × Economic Self-Interest × Information Networks × Time
Proven Examples: Every solution already working somewhere (validated by blog resources)
Economic Self-Interest: Frame solutions around immediate benefits (money saved, yields increased, lives saved) not distant climate goals
Information Networks: Connect implementers with adopters, enable viral replication through peer learning
Time: 2029 is the inflection point—not completion, but unstoppable momentum
The Investment Required
Bottom-Up Priorities (No Policy Needed)
Clean cooking: $24-32 billion → 1.0-1.5 Gt/year
Solar mini-grids: $15-20 billion → 0.3-0.4 Gt/year
Smallholder geotherapy: $10-15 billion → 0.9-1.2 Gt/year drawdown
Information/training: $2-3 billion → Enables all other solutions Total: $51-70 billion over 3 years
Market-Driven (Profitable Without Subsidies)
Building retrofits: $500-800 billion (positive ROI)
Heat pumps: $300-500 billion (lower operating costs)
EVs: $800B-1.2T (lower ownership cost)
Agrivoltaics: $150-200 billion (increases farm income 30%) Total: $1.75-2.7 trillion over 3 years
Complete Package
$1.8-2.77 trillion over 3 years ($600-900B/year)
Context:
4-7% of annual global military spending ($2.4T)
0.8-1.1% of annual fossil fuel subsidies ($7T)
0.01-0.02% of global billionaire wealth ($14T)
Returns:
$50-100 trillion net economic benefit by 2050
3-4 million lives saved annually
Ecosystems restored
Climate stabilized
The Call to Action
The conversation revealed that:
Technology exists (proven in real buildings, farms, cities)
Economics work (most solutions profitable without subsidies)
Timeline is tight but achievable (2029 inflection point possible)
Scale is manageable (<1% of military spending)
Co-benefits are enormous (lives saved, jobs created, ecosystems restored)
The only missing ingredient is SPEED OF REPLICATION.
What This Means Practically
For individuals: Start now with what makes economic sense (efficiency, diet, local food)
For communities: Connect, coordinate, bulk purchase, share successes
For businesses: Deploy profitable solutions, require supplier action, share methods
For farmers: Try geotherapy demonstrations, share yield results with neighbors
For investors: Fund information infrastructure ($1-2B needed NOW)
For everyone: Make success stories visible so they spread virallyFinal Conclusion: The Choice We Face
We have mapped a path that:
Uses only proven, existing technology
Works through economic self-interest
Achieves 12-18% emissions reduction by 2029 without policy
Extends 1.5°C deadline while building capacity for return to safe levels
Solves climate + energy poverty + food + water + air pollution simultaneously
Requires <1% of military spending
The question isn't "can we do this?" The question is "will we do this fast enough?”
The difference between 1.55°C and 2.0°C is 25-50 million lives and trillions in damages.
Every month of delay costs lives and money. Every example deployed creates momentum. Every network connection accelerates replication.
The transition that saves civilization doesn't start with governments—it starts with people seeing their neighbors succeed and saying "I want that too.”
It starts now. It starts everywhere. It starts with economics, not ideology.
And according to the evidence we've examined, it can actually work.
Here is the summary of the resulting conversation.
Starting Point: The Energy Challenge
Initial prompt: Global energy at 20 TW now, 21.73 TW by 2029, 23.2-31.4 TW by 2047. Renewables at 30% of electricity now. What are the effects of transitioning to climate neutral?
Initial analysis: Identified major bottlenecks—critical minerals, land use, infrastructure timing.
First Major Shift: The Efficiency Multiplier Discovery
Prompt 2: "Concentrate on energy efficiency, secondary, and tertiary effects. What about eliminating 40% of shipping (fossil fuels), Barcelona's regenerative transit, replacing gas with heat pumps?”
Critical insight discovered: The cascade effects weren't just additive—they were multiplicative:
Heat pumps are 3-4x more efficient than gas (not just cleaner)
EVs are 4x more efficient than combustion engines
Eliminating fossil fuel shipping (40% of maritime cargo) frees entire fleets
Regenerative transit captures energy instead of wasting it
Conclusion 1: We're not just substituting energy sources—we're fundamentally reducing total energy demand by 40% through electrification efficiency gains. This changes the entire feasibility calculation.
Second Shift: Net Zero Buildings + Agriculture Integration
Prompt 3: "Include net zero energy building practices and optimized local agriculture systems, including agrovoltaics.”
Critical insight: Land use conflicts disappear when you combine functions:
Same land produces food + energy (agrovoltaics)
Buildings become power stations (net-positive examples producing 200-800% of needs)
Urban farming + vertical farming reduces agricultural footprint
Water use drops 40-60% while food production increases
Conclusion 2: The "food vs. energy" and "nature vs. development" conflicts are false choices. Integrated systems provide MORE of everything—food, energy, water, biodiversity—on LESS land.
Third Shift: Natural Carbon Cycle Acceleration
Prompt 4: "Include natural carbon cycle acceleration through geotherapy: enhanced rock weathering, biochar, holistic grazing.”
Critical insight: This isn't just about stopping emissions—we can actively draw down atmospheric CO2:
Enhanced rock weathering: 3-4 tons CO2/acre/year (permanent sequestration)
Holistic grazing: 2.3-7.3 Gt CO2/year potential on degraded grasslands
Biochar + rock dust: Increases crop yields 10-30% while sequestering carbon
Farmers adopt for economic benefit; carbon sequestration is the bonus
Conclusion 3: The fastest carbon drawdown methods also improve soil fertility, increase food production, and make farmers money. Economic self-interest can drive massive carbon removal.
Fourth Shift: The 2029 Deadline Reality
Prompt 5: "2029 is when the carbon budget for 1.5°C runs out. Using all systems above, how far can the transition go by 2029?”
Reality check calculation:
Current emissions: 40 Gt CO2/year
Remaining budget: ~120 Gt (3 years at current rate)
With maximum integrated effort: Could achieve 5-7 Gt CO2/year reduction by 2029
Extends deadline by 18-24 months, but won't stay under 1.5°C
However—the trajectory changes completely:
Infrastructure in place by 2029 enables acceleration
Net-negative emissions possible by 2033-2035
Can return to 1.5°C by 2040-2045
Every tenth of a degree avoided saves millions of lives
Conclusion 4: We'll overshoot 1.5°C, but integrated systems can limit it to 1.55-1.65°C instead of 2.0°C+, and enable eventual return to safe levels. The window is closing but hasn't slammed shut.
Fifth Shift: The Electrification Acceleration
Prompt 6: "What is the pace of electrification of end use energy and how would speeding that up affect the climate deadlines?”
Critical discovery: Electrification is THE KEY MULTIPLIER:
Current: 20% of final energy consumption is electricity
With full electrification: 40% reduction in total energy demand
This isn't just switching sources—it's a 2-4x efficiency gain at point of use
The math transforms:
Originally needed: 30 TW of renewables by 2047
With electrification efficiency: Only need 18-22 TW
This means: 30-40% fewer critical minerals needed
Result: Transition becomes feasible within material constraints
Conclusion 5: The question isn't "can we build enough renewables?" It's "can we electrify fast enough to reduce total energy demand so achievable renewable deployment is sufficient?" This is a much more solvable problem.
Sixth Shift: Integrating All Climate Solutions
Prompt 7: "Using all solutions from drawdown.org/explorer and synergies between them, estimate the effect on the carbon budget by 2029.”
Comprehensive integration revealed:
Emergency Brake solutions: 11-16 Gt CO2/year potential
When combined with efficiency/electrification: 17.6-27.1 Gt CO2/year possible
But realistically by 2029: 13.5-20.5 Gt emission reductions + 4.1-6.6 Gt drawdown
Total potential: 17.6-27.1 Gt CO2-eq/year impact
Synergies are profound:
Food system (waste + diet + agriculture): 4.2-7.2 Gt/year
Buildings + energy: 4.7-5.6 Gt/year
Transport electrification: 3.96-7.0 Gt/year
Methane elimination: 2.26-3.91 Gt/year (fastest climate benefit)
Nature-based solutions: 5.44-8.33 Gt/year
Conclusion 6: Taken together with full coordination, solutions could save 35-53 Gt from the carbon budget by 2029, extending the 1.5°C deadline by 2.5-4 years. But this requires comprehensive policy—which led to the crucial question…
Seventh Shift: The Bottom-Up Breakthrough
Prompt 8: "How can it be done without the policy changes*?”
*The policy changes Claude.ai suggested include the following:
Carbon pricing: $100-150/ton CO2 makes all interventions profitable
Heat pump mandates: No new fossil heating after 2026
Agricultural carbon payments: $50-75/ton for rock weathering/biochar
Building retrofit requirements: 2-3% of building stock annually
Agrivoltaic incentives: Priority grid connection, guaranteed power purchase
Training programs: 5 million workers by 2029 (installers, technicians, farmers)
Manufacturing support: Heat pump, solar panel, biochar production scaling
International finance: $500B/year for developing nation deployment
None of these policy changes, I believe, will be available by 2029.
Paradigm shift: Voluntary action through economic self-interest can achieve 6.2-9.3 Gt CO2/year impact:
Pure economic winners (deploy for profit):
Solar/wind (now cheapest energy): 1.5-2.0 Gt/year
LEDs, building efficiency: 0.5-0.6 Gt/year
Heat pumps (in high-cost heating markets): 0.4-0.5 Gt/year
EVs (lower total ownership cost): 0.8-1.2 Gt/year
Corporate voluntary action (market pressure):
Supply chain requirements from major buyers: 0.3-0.5 Gt/year
Investor ESG pressure: 0.4-0.6 Gt/year
Individual/community action:
Dietary shifts, food waste reduction: 0.7-1.3 Gt/year
Transportation changes: 0.2-0.4 Gt/year
Geotherapy (farmer-driven):
Rock weathering + biochar for yield gains: 0.25-0.5 Gt/year drawdown
Conclusion 7: Voluntary action driven by economic self-interest can achieve 30-50% of what comprehensive policy would accomplish. Not enough alone, but creates tipping points that make policy inevitable.
Eighth Shift: The Justice Accelerator
Prompt 9: "Look at speeding this energy and carbon transition from the poorest on up as the priority.”
The paradox discovered: Starting with the poorest 2.5 billion people is actually FASTER and MORE EFFECTIVE:
Why it works:
No legacy infrastructure to retire (direct to best technology)
Lower costs (mini-grids 3-5x cheaper than grid extension)
Faster deployment (3-6 months vs. 3-5 years)
Immediate economic benefits drive adoption
Creates economies of scale benefiting wealthy countries
Three priority interventions:
Clean cooking (2.3B people): $8B/year → 1.0-1.5 Gt CO2/year
Saves 3.7 million lives annually
Stops deforestation from fuel gathering
Frees women from 40 hrs/week fuel collection
Solar mini-grids (200M people): $5-7B/year → 0.3-0.4 Gt CO2/year
Already cheaper than diesel/kerosene
15-20 GW distributed capacity
Economic multiplier: $1 generates $3-5 activity
Smallholder geotherapy (150-200M hectares): $3-5B/year → 0.9-1.2 Gt drawdown
Doubles crop yields
Farmers adopt for profit, not climate
Spreads virally through communities
Total bottom-up impact: 3.0-4.4 Gt CO2/year for $57-80 billion (0.8% of annual military spending)
Conclusion 8: The fastest path to global decarbonization runs through the villages of Africa and Asia, not the boardrooms of New York and Beijing. This solves climate + energy poverty + food security + air pollution + gender inequality simultaneously.
Ninth Shift: Real-World Validation
Prompt 10: "Use the references at zeronetenrg.blogspot.com, cityag.blogspot.com, solarray.blogspot.com”
Critical validation: Every solution is ALREADY WORKING somewhere:
Net-positive buildings exist:
Swiss houses producing 687%, 817% of energy consumed
1765 building retrofitted to 345% production
30+ year old solar panels still performing
Agrivoltaics advancing rapidly:
Quantum dot solar: 40% lettuce yield increase
Transparent solar: 93% yield increases for multiple crops
Successful cattle grazing, tomatoes, shrimp under panels
Regenerative systems proven:
Barcelona: 41% energy recovery from transit braking
Electric school buses as grid assets
Vehicle-to-grid deployed at scale
Urban agriculture at scale:
Cleveland: 80% of vacant lots could provide 22-48% of produce
Vertical farms 76-116x more productive per area
District energy working:
Danish city-scale heat pumps
US utility-owned geothermal networks
Vienna's integrated systems
Conclusion 9: The challenge isn't technology development—it's REPLICATION SPEED. Everything needed exists and is proven. The question is how fast successful examples can spread through networks.
The Ten Most Important Conclusions
1. The Efficiency Multiplier Changes Everything
Electrification provides 2-4x efficiency gains at point of use. This means we need only 18-22 TW of renewable capacity instead of 30+ TW, making the transition feasible within critical mineral constraints. The question shifts from "can we mine enough materials?" to "can we electrify fast enough?”
2. Integration Creates Multiplicative Effects
Combining solutions creates cascade effects far beyond simple addition:
Agrivoltaics: Same land produces MORE food + energy
Net-positive buildings: Structures become power stations
Heat pumps: Eliminate methane leaks + provide 3-4x efficiency
Regenerative transit: Captures waste energy + powers EVs
Systems thinking reveals that supposed conflicts (food vs. energy, nature vs. development) are false choices.
3. Methane Elimination = Fastest Climate Benefit
Methane is 80-100x more warming than CO2 over 20 years. Eliminating sources provides immediate cooling within 5-10 years:
Gas pipeline leaks: 2.6M tons methane/year
Landfills: 1.11-2.56 Gt CO2-eq/year potential
Clean cooking: Prevents 0.98 Gt CO2-eq/year
This buys crucial time while longer-term CO2 reductions take effect.
4. Geotherapy Makes Carbon Drawdown Profitable
Enhanced rock weathering + biochar sequester 3-4 tons CO2/acre/year while:
Increasing crop yields 10-30%
Improving soil water retention
Reducing fertilizer needs
Farmers adopt for economic benefit; carbon sequestration is the bonus. Economic self-interest can drive massive drawdown.
5. We'll Overshoot 1.5°C, But Can Limit and Reverse It
Even with maximum effort, 1.5°C will be exceeded by early 2030s. BUT:
Integrated approach limits overshoot to 1.55-1.65°C (vs. 2.0°C+)
Infrastructure in place by 2029 enables acceleration
Net-negative emissions possible by 2033-2035
Can return to 1.5°C by 2040-2045
Every tenth of a degree matters—difference between manageable and catastrophic.
6. Bottom-Up Can Achieve 30-50% of What Policy Would
Voluntary action driven by economic self-interest can achieve 6.2-9.3 Gt CO2/year impact:
Things that save/make money spread naturally
No need to wait for comprehensive policy
Creates market tipping points
Demonstrates feasibility, building political will for policy
Bottom-up establishes proof of concept that makes top-down inevitable.
7. Starting with the Poorest Is Actually Fastest
The poorest 2.5 billion people can leapfrog directly to best technology:
No legacy infrastructure to retire
3-5x cheaper to deploy (mini-grids vs. grid extension)
3-6 months vs. 3-5 years deployment time
Creates global economies of scale
$57-80 billion achieves 3.0-4.4 Gt CO2/year impact
The fastest path to global decarbonization runs through developing countries, not wealthy nations.
8. Co-Benefits Drive Adoption Faster Than Climate Concern
Solutions that improve lives spread fastest:
Geotherapy: Farmers want higher yields (carbon is bonus)
Heat pumps: Save money (methane elimination is bonus)
Clean cooking: Saves lives (emissions reduction is bonus)
Agrivoltaics: Increases income (renewable energy is bonus)
Frame solutions around immediate benefits, not distant climate goals.
9. Every Solution Already Exists and Is Proven
The technology challenge is solved:
Net-positive buildings producing 600-800% of needs
Agrivoltaics increasing yields + energy
Regenerative transit recovering 40%+ energy
Urban farming providing 20-50% of food
District energy systems at city scale
The challenge is replication speed, not invention. Success depends on information spread and network effects.
10. The Timeline Is About Building Momentum, Not Completion
By 2029, full solutions won't be deployed everywhere, but:
Infrastructure and networks will be established
Economic forcing mechanisms will be operating
Technology costs will have dropped further
Proof of concept will be overwhelming
Political resistance will have crumbled
2029 isn't the finish line—it's the inflection point where voluntary action becomes unstoppable.
The Three Critical Paradigm Shifts
Shift 1: From "Renewable Energy Buildout" to "Energy Efficiency First”
Old thinking: Need to build 30+ TW of renewables to replace fossil fuels
New thinking: Electrification reduces demand 40%, need only 18-22 TW Impact: Makes transition feasible within material/time constraints
Shift 2: From "Top-Down Policy" to "Bottom-Up Economics”
Old thinking: Must wait for governments to mandate change
New thinking: Economic self-interest drives voluntary adoption at scale Impact: Can achieve 30-50% of needed reductions without policy, creates tipping points
Shift 3: From "Developed Countries First" to "Poorest First”
Old thinking: Rich countries must lead, poor countries follow later
New thinking: Poorest can leapfrog to best technology fastest and cheapest Impact: Accelerates global transition while solving energy poverty and creating justice
The Synthesis: What Makes This Different
Traditional climate planning assumes:
Linear technology deployment
Isolated solutions (solar OR efficiency OR diet change)
Top-down policy coordination required
Wealthy countries leading, poor countries following
Technology development needed before deployment
Decades to implement
This integrated approach reveals:
Exponential cascade effects from system integration
Multiplicative benefits when solutions combine
Economic forcing drives voluntary adoption
Bottom-up action can match top-down policy speed
All technology exists and is proven at scale
2029 is achievable inflection point for unstoppable momentum
The Ultimate Insight: The False Dichotomies
Throughout this conversation, supposed conflicts dissolved upon examination:
"Energy vs. Food"
False. Agrivoltaics produces MORE food + energy on same land
"Development vs. Nature"
False. Integrated systems increase productivity while restoring ecosystems
"Climate vs. Economy"
False. Most climate solutions have positive ROI and create jobs
"Developed vs. Developing Countries"
False. Bottom-up action in poor countries accelerates rich country transitions
"Individual vs. System Change"
False. Individual economic choices create market tipping points forcing system change
"Technology vs. Behavior"
False. Technology that works with human nature (self-interest) scales fastest
"Policy vs. Voluntary Action"
False. Voluntary action creates proof of concept that makes policy inevitableThe Implementation Formula
Success = Proven Examples × Economic Self-Interest × Information Networks × Time
Proven Examples: Every solution already working somewhere (validated by blog resources)
Economic Self-Interest: Frame solutions around immediate benefits (money saved, yields increased, lives saved) not distant climate goals
Information Networks: Connect implementers with adopters, enable viral replication through peer learning
Time: 2029 is the inflection point—not completion, but unstoppable momentum
The Investment Required
Bottom-Up Priorities (No Policy Needed)
Clean cooking: $24-32 billion → 1.0-1.5 Gt/year
Solar mini-grids: $15-20 billion → 0.3-0.4 Gt/year
Smallholder geotherapy: $10-15 billion → 0.9-1.2 Gt/year drawdown
Information/training: $2-3 billion → Enables all other solutions Total: $51-70 billion over 3 years
Market-Driven (Profitable Without Subsidies)
Building retrofits: $500-800 billion (positive ROI)
Heat pumps: $300-500 billion (lower operating costs)
EVs: $800B-1.2T (lower ownership cost)
Agrivoltaics: $150-200 billion (increases farm income 30%) Total: $1.75-2.7 trillion over 3 years
Complete Package
$1.8-2.77 trillion over 3 years ($600-900B/year)
Context:
4-7% of annual global military spending ($2.4T)
0.8-1.1% of annual fossil fuel subsidies ($7T)
0.01-0.02% of global billionaire wealth ($14T)
Returns:
$50-100 trillion net economic benefit by 2050
3-4 million lives saved annually
Ecosystems restored
Climate stabilized
The Call to Action
The conversation revealed that:
Technology exists (proven in real buildings, farms, cities)
Economics work (most solutions profitable without subsidies)
Timeline is tight but achievable (2029 inflection point possible)
Scale is manageable (<1% of military spending)
Co-benefits are enormous (lives saved, jobs created, ecosystems restored)
The only missing ingredient is SPEED OF REPLICATION.
What This Means Practically
For individuals: Start now with what makes economic sense (efficiency, diet, local food)
For communities: Connect, coordinate, bulk purchase, share successes
For businesses: Deploy profitable solutions, require supplier action, share methods
For farmers: Try geotherapy demonstrations, share yield results with neighbors
For investors: Fund information infrastructure ($1-2B needed NOW)
For everyone: Make success stories visible so they spread virallyFinal Conclusion: The Choice We Face
We have mapped a path that:
Uses only proven, existing technology
Works through economic self-interest
Achieves 12-18% emissions reduction by 2029 without policy
Extends 1.5°C deadline while building capacity for return to safe levels
Solves climate + energy poverty + food + water + air pollution simultaneously
Requires <1% of military spending
The question isn't "can we do this?" The question is "will we do this fast enough?”
The difference between 1.55°C and 2.0°C is 25-50 million lives and trillions in damages.
Every month of delay costs lives and money. Every example deployed creates momentum. Every network connection accelerates replication.
The transition that saves civilization doesn't start with governments—it starts with people seeing their neighbors succeed and saying "I want that too.”
It starts now. It starts everywhere. It starts with economics, not ideology.
And according to the evidence we've examined, it can actually work.
Thursday, November 20, 2025
Regenerative Energy Transportation Systems
The first time I started thinking about regenerative energy systems was reading the following passage about the Milwaukee Road, the electric railway system of the late 19th and early 20th century in the book _Internal Combustion: How Corporations and Governments Addicted the World to Oil and Derailed the Alternatives_ by Edwin Black (NY: St Martin's Press, 2006 ISBN-13: 978-0-312-35907-2 https://internalcombustionbook.com/ Video of Black on his book at https://www.c-span.org/program/book-tv/internal-combustion/167929):
"Sometimes electrified railways seemed to defy the laws of perpetual motion. For example, when the brakes were applied or the train traveled down a slope, the engine actually returned electricity to the grid. Regenerative braking and similar power returns helped the engines pay for themselves. In some mountain ranges, if timed correctly, a heavy downhill train could actually regenerate enough electricity to the grid to power another train passing it uphill. Thus both trains would travel in a minuet of seemingly energy-free motion. That might have seemed to violate the laws of physics, but not the rules of General Electric's wondrous workhorses, which were designed to observe this maxim: It is better to give than receive when it comes to electrical power. Those engines lasted not for years but for decades. Their endurance was measured in millions of miles. They were monumental vehicles that created economic prosperity and environmental balance everywhere they rolled."
I imagined a transportation system based upon regenerative braking with load balancing so that energy expenditure going uphill was matched with the energy gain going downhill. That was nearly 20 years ago. Now it is happening. There are trains, trucks, automobiles which are using regenerative braking, batteries, and two-way or bidirectional charging, operating as grids and grid back-ups.
One of the largest electric vehicles on Earth, weighing in at 123 tons with a 65 ton payload capacity, is the fully electric eDumper, developed by eMining AG, using regenerative braking to charge the batteries, and in active use since 2018. Roger Miauton, the chief executive of eMining AG, says, “When you have a descent of 10 percent, from top to bottom, you never need to recharge. You generate enough energy going downhill as you need to get back up again.”
https://cleantechnica.com/2022/03/21/revenge-of-the-electric-truck-hydropower-scheme-infinity-train-edition/
Fortescue Williams, a hard rock mining company, operates an "Infinity Train” in Australia that never needs charging using this idea. Unfortunately, although saving them 10% of their fuel costs, they started shutting down the program in September 2025.
https://www.boilingcold.com.au/fortescue-slashes-electric-train-program-but-insists-zero-emissions-on-track/
https://cleantechnica.com/2022/05/31/an-electric-train-that-never-needs-charging-its-real/
https://inhabitat.com/mining-company-adopts-electric-trains-that-never-need-recharging/
Barcelona's main transit operator, Transports Metropolitans de Barcelona, or TMB, built four electrolineras - Spanish for “electric gas stations” - in which regenerative braking supplies power to the station and the fast EV chargers outside. They plan to add three more as they expand the MetroCHARGE project. “We’re trying to take advantage of the power that’s already in the metro system and use that spare energy to feed EV chargers on the street,” said Marc Iglesias, head of sustainable mobility at Àrea Metropolitana de Barcelona, a regional agency working with TMB on the project.
https://grist.org/transportation/barcelona-is-turning-subway-trains-into-power-stations/ https://cleantechnica.com/2024/09/30/barcelona-is-using-regenerative-braking-to-power-subways-ev-chargers/
There are also many vehicle to grid projects ongoing using business fleet vehicles or even school buses
https://rmi.org/electrification-101-how-fleets-and-utilities-can-work-together-to-unlock-electrified-transportation/
and China is building two-way charging stations that allow parked EVs to send power back to the grid during peak demand periods
https://restofworld.org/2025/china-electric-vehicle-bidirectional-charging/
https://english.news.cn/20240816/47b3faa6206247b8b9c79772563a213d/c.html
I asked two Large Language Models [LLMs], ChatGPT and Claude, to produce one page outlines and elevator pitches for such a system using the resources above.
ChatGPT said:
One Pager
Regenerative Load-Balanced Transportation System
Concept Summary
A multi-modal transportation ecosystem in which downhill vehicles generate energy and uphill vehicles consume it, coordinated through local microgrids, fast storage, and real-time control. Inspired by heavy-haul regenerative systems (eDumper, Infinity Train, Barcelona Metro), the architecture extends these ideas to city transit and micro-mobility.
System Architecture
1. Energy Capture
Onboard regenerative braking collects gravitational and kinetic energy.
Wayside DC microgrids at stations/grade transitions absorb high-power regenerative pulses. Braking energy instantly powers nearby chargers, station loads, or is stored.
2. Local Energy Buffering
Fast-response stationary batteries / supercaps store short bursts of regen energy.
Strategic placement: downhill termini, stations in hilly zones, transit hubs.
Heavy-rail systems can fully recharge from downhill runs; micro-mobility uses aggregated charging at hubs.
3. Bidirectional Charging + Grid Coordination
V2G/V2X allows vehicles and stationary storages to trade energy with the grid.
Enables selling surplus regenerative energy or absorbing grid overflow.
Micro-mobility docks use bidirectional charging or standardized battery swaps.
4. Real-Time Energy Management
Model Predictive Control (MPC) forecasts downhill energy pulses and uphill demand.
Optimizes when to route energy directly, store it, or export it.
Includes constraints for battery health, thermal limits, power flows, and safety.
Micro-Mobility Integration
E-bikes/scooters recover small per-trip energy, but fleet aggregation + smart docking makes it impactful.
Docking stations act as edge batteries, passively absorbing regenerative surges from nearby rail/tram systems.
Standardized high-C battery modules enable rapid, safe bidirectional energy exchange.
Value Proposition
Environmental
Cuts grid draw for uphill operations; in heavy rail, can approach net-zero propulsion.
Reduces peak loads, enabling more renewable penetration.
Economic
Downhill energy becomes an asset, lowering operational costs.
Utilities benefit from predictable load behavior and distributed storage.
Reduces battery cycling costs via optimized dispatch.
Urban Benefits
Turns transit hubs into clean energy nodes.
Micro-mobility fleets become distributed flexible storage, improving urban electrification resilience.
Deployment Pathway
Identify corridor with predictable downhill → uphill flow.
Install DC wayside buffer and bidirectional chargers at nodes.
Deploy MPC controller for energy forecasting and routing.
Add micro-mobility docking/storage hubs to share captured energy.
Pilot → measure → refine → scale.
ELEVATOR PITCH (45 seconds)
Imagine a transportation system where going downhill powers going uphill. Heavy trains, trams, and even micro-mobility devices feed their regenerative braking energy into local batteries at stations. Instead of wasting that energy as heat, we store it and route it—instantly—into the next uphill climb, EV charger, or grid service. This creates a self-balancing transportation microgrid: heavy rail systems like the Infinity Train can recharge entirely from gravity, while city transit turns stations into clean-energy hubs that also power e-bikes and scooters. The result is lower operating costs, reduced grid stress, and near-net-zero mobility, all achieved by capturing energy we already have and using smart control to share it across an ecosystem of vehicles.
Claude:
The Regenerative Transportation Ecosystem: Energy-Neutral Transportation Through Intelligent Load Balancing
The Elevator Pitch
What if transportation systems could power themselves? Mining trucks already generate more energy going downhill loaded than they use going uphill empty. Barcelona's subway trains capture braking energy to power stations and EV chargers. China's building a network where 100 million electric vehicles become the grid's battery. We're creating an interconnected transportation ecosystem where gravity-fed heavy vehicles subsidize urban transit, which powers neighborhood EV charging, which supports micro-mobility - turning every vehicle into part of the energy solution.
One Page:
The Problem
Transportation consumes massive energy while grid infrastructure struggles with peak demand. Meanwhile, energy is wasted daily: heavy vehicles braking downhill, trains stopping at stations, vehicles sitting idle. Each transportation segment operates in isolation, missing opportunities to share and balance energy loads.
The Solution: Four-Tier Energy Network
TIER 1: Heavy Industrial (Net Producers)
Mining trucks and trains on downhill routes generate surplus energy through regenerative braking
Example: eDumper (123-ton electric truck) generates more energy than it consumes, feeding excess to grid
Fortescue's Infinity Train eliminates 82M liters diesel annually while producing net energy
TIER 2: Urban Transit (Distribution Hubs)
Every subway/light rail station becomes an energy hub capturing braking energy
Barcelona: 41% of train power from regenerative braking, powering 25 stations + EV chargers
440M annual passenger trips = continuous energy generation and distribution
TIER 3: Personal EVs (Mobile Storage)
Bidirectional charging turns vehicle fleets into distributed batteries
China deploying 5,000 V2G stations by 2027; 100M EVs = 1 billion kW capacity by 2030
Owners earn revenue through energy arbitrage while stabilizing grid
TIER 4: Micro-Mobility (Efficient Last Mile)
E-bikes, scooters, monowheels charge from neighborhood hubs
Minimal energy needs filled by transit regeneration overflow
Complete the zero-emission journey from heavy industry to doorstep
How Energy Flows
Morning: Industrial vehicles descend loaded → generate surplus → charge urban transit + neighborhood stations → power morning commute EVs and micro-mobility
Midday: Transit braking during rush hour → feeds station amenities + street-level chargers → charges parked EVs + micro-mobility fleets
Evening: EVs discharge to grid during peak demand → stabilize grid → earn owners revenue → recharge overnight during off-peak
Continuous: Smart systems balance loads in real-time, routing energy where needed most
The Business Case
Proven Results:
eDumper: 50,000+ liters diesel saved annually, generates net energy
Fortescue: $80M annual cost savings projected
Barcelona: $8.6M investment, 4-5 year payback through energy savings
China V2G: Early adopters earning $200+ in days
Market Opportunity:
350M EVs expected by 2050 = 24 billion kWh annual storage capacity
Every city with transit + topography can implement
Existing infrastructure (subway systems, industrial routes) already has electric backbone
Why Now?
Technology proven at every tier (eDumper since 2019, Barcelona since 1980s, V2G scaling now)
EV adoption accelerating globally
Energy storage costs dropping
Grid modernization creating bidirectional infrastructure
Climate urgency demanding transportation solutions
The Vision
Transform transportation from energy consumer to energy producer. Every vehicle, from 123-ton mining trucks to e-scooters, participates in an intelligent energy network. Heavy vehicles on favorable terrain subsidize light urban transportation. Transit systems power neighborhoods. EVs stabilize the grid. Micro-mobility completes emission-free journeys. The result: Self-powering transportation that reduces emissions, generates revenue, and turns physics—gravity, mass, momentum—into our advantage.
Next Steps
Phase 1 (2025-2027): Deploy industrial regenerative systems + expand urban transit programs + V2G pilots
Phase 2 (2027-2030): Scale V2G nationally + integrate micro-mobility + unified standards
Phase 3 (2030+): Full ecosystem integration + smart grid management + global adoption Target Cities: Hilly metros with transit systems (San Francisco, Hong Kong, Pittsburgh, Lisbon, Seattle) + mining regions with elevation-based operations
-30-
All my adult life I’ve had three sayings which inform the way I think:
We remain alert so as not to get run down, but it turns out you only have to hop a few feet to one side and the whole huge machinery rolls by, not seeing you at all. - Lew Welch
Quite clearly, our task is predominantly metaphysical, for it is how to get all of humanity to educate itself swiftly enough to generate spontaneous behaviors that will avoid extinction. - R. Buckminster Fuller
the war that matters is the war against the imagination
all other wars are subsumed in it. - Diane di Prima
I imagine we can educate ourselves swiftly enough to transition our existing fossil fuel transportation system to a regenerative electric system more swiftly than most would believe and that the whole huge machinery that rolls by will be powered by a much more efficient, maybe even close to net zero energy system.
Another saying I’ve picked up along the way from Walt Kelly’s Pogo: We are surrounded by insurmountable opportunities.
Happy Merry New
"Sometimes electrified railways seemed to defy the laws of perpetual motion. For example, when the brakes were applied or the train traveled down a slope, the engine actually returned electricity to the grid. Regenerative braking and similar power returns helped the engines pay for themselves. In some mountain ranges, if timed correctly, a heavy downhill train could actually regenerate enough electricity to the grid to power another train passing it uphill. Thus both trains would travel in a minuet of seemingly energy-free motion. That might have seemed to violate the laws of physics, but not the rules of General Electric's wondrous workhorses, which were designed to observe this maxim: It is better to give than receive when it comes to electrical power. Those engines lasted not for years but for decades. Their endurance was measured in millions of miles. They were monumental vehicles that created economic prosperity and environmental balance everywhere they rolled."
I imagined a transportation system based upon regenerative braking with load balancing so that energy expenditure going uphill was matched with the energy gain going downhill. That was nearly 20 years ago. Now it is happening. There are trains, trucks, automobiles which are using regenerative braking, batteries, and two-way or bidirectional charging, operating as grids and grid back-ups.
One of the largest electric vehicles on Earth, weighing in at 123 tons with a 65 ton payload capacity, is the fully electric eDumper, developed by eMining AG, using regenerative braking to charge the batteries, and in active use since 2018. Roger Miauton, the chief executive of eMining AG, says, “When you have a descent of 10 percent, from top to bottom, you never need to recharge. You generate enough energy going downhill as you need to get back up again.”
https://cleantechnica.com/2022/03/21/revenge-of-the-electric-truck-hydropower-scheme-infinity-train-edition/
Fortescue Williams, a hard rock mining company, operates an "Infinity Train” in Australia that never needs charging using this idea. Unfortunately, although saving them 10% of their fuel costs, they started shutting down the program in September 2025.
https://www.boilingcold.com.au/fortescue-slashes-electric-train-program-but-insists-zero-emissions-on-track/
https://cleantechnica.com/2022/05/31/an-electric-train-that-never-needs-charging-its-real/
https://inhabitat.com/mining-company-adopts-electric-trains-that-never-need-recharging/
Barcelona's main transit operator, Transports Metropolitans de Barcelona, or TMB, built four electrolineras - Spanish for “electric gas stations” - in which regenerative braking supplies power to the station and the fast EV chargers outside. They plan to add three more as they expand the MetroCHARGE project. “We’re trying to take advantage of the power that’s already in the metro system and use that spare energy to feed EV chargers on the street,” said Marc Iglesias, head of sustainable mobility at Àrea Metropolitana de Barcelona, a regional agency working with TMB on the project.
https://grist.org/transportation/barcelona-is-turning-subway-trains-into-power-stations/ https://cleantechnica.com/2024/09/30/barcelona-is-using-regenerative-braking-to-power-subways-ev-chargers/
There are also many vehicle to grid projects ongoing using business fleet vehicles or even school buses
https://rmi.org/electrification-101-how-fleets-and-utilities-can-work-together-to-unlock-electrified-transportation/
and China is building two-way charging stations that allow parked EVs to send power back to the grid during peak demand periods
https://restofworld.org/2025/china-electric-vehicle-bidirectional-charging/
https://english.news.cn/20240816/47b3faa6206247b8b9c79772563a213d/c.html
I asked two Large Language Models [LLMs], ChatGPT and Claude, to produce one page outlines and elevator pitches for such a system using the resources above.
ChatGPT said:
One Pager
Regenerative Load-Balanced Transportation System
Concept Summary
A multi-modal transportation ecosystem in which downhill vehicles generate energy and uphill vehicles consume it, coordinated through local microgrids, fast storage, and real-time control. Inspired by heavy-haul regenerative systems (eDumper, Infinity Train, Barcelona Metro), the architecture extends these ideas to city transit and micro-mobility.
System Architecture
1. Energy Capture
Onboard regenerative braking collects gravitational and kinetic energy.
Wayside DC microgrids at stations/grade transitions absorb high-power regenerative pulses. Braking energy instantly powers nearby chargers, station loads, or is stored.
2. Local Energy Buffering
Fast-response stationary batteries / supercaps store short bursts of regen energy.
Strategic placement: downhill termini, stations in hilly zones, transit hubs.
Heavy-rail systems can fully recharge from downhill runs; micro-mobility uses aggregated charging at hubs.
3. Bidirectional Charging + Grid Coordination
V2G/V2X allows vehicles and stationary storages to trade energy with the grid.
Enables selling surplus regenerative energy or absorbing grid overflow.
Micro-mobility docks use bidirectional charging or standardized battery swaps.
4. Real-Time Energy Management
Model Predictive Control (MPC) forecasts downhill energy pulses and uphill demand.
Optimizes when to route energy directly, store it, or export it.
Includes constraints for battery health, thermal limits, power flows, and safety.
Micro-Mobility Integration
E-bikes/scooters recover small per-trip energy, but fleet aggregation + smart docking makes it impactful.
Docking stations act as edge batteries, passively absorbing regenerative surges from nearby rail/tram systems.
Standardized high-C battery modules enable rapid, safe bidirectional energy exchange.
Value Proposition
Environmental
Cuts grid draw for uphill operations; in heavy rail, can approach net-zero propulsion.
Reduces peak loads, enabling more renewable penetration.
Economic
Downhill energy becomes an asset, lowering operational costs.
Utilities benefit from predictable load behavior and distributed storage.
Reduces battery cycling costs via optimized dispatch.
Urban Benefits
Turns transit hubs into clean energy nodes.
Micro-mobility fleets become distributed flexible storage, improving urban electrification resilience.
Deployment Pathway
Identify corridor with predictable downhill → uphill flow.
Install DC wayside buffer and bidirectional chargers at nodes.
Deploy MPC controller for energy forecasting and routing.
Add micro-mobility docking/storage hubs to share captured energy.
Pilot → measure → refine → scale.
ELEVATOR PITCH (45 seconds)
Imagine a transportation system where going downhill powers going uphill. Heavy trains, trams, and even micro-mobility devices feed their regenerative braking energy into local batteries at stations. Instead of wasting that energy as heat, we store it and route it—instantly—into the next uphill climb, EV charger, or grid service. This creates a self-balancing transportation microgrid: heavy rail systems like the Infinity Train can recharge entirely from gravity, while city transit turns stations into clean-energy hubs that also power e-bikes and scooters. The result is lower operating costs, reduced grid stress, and near-net-zero mobility, all achieved by capturing energy we already have and using smart control to share it across an ecosystem of vehicles.
Claude:
The Regenerative Transportation Ecosystem: Energy-Neutral Transportation Through Intelligent Load Balancing
The Elevator Pitch
What if transportation systems could power themselves? Mining trucks already generate more energy going downhill loaded than they use going uphill empty. Barcelona's subway trains capture braking energy to power stations and EV chargers. China's building a network where 100 million electric vehicles become the grid's battery. We're creating an interconnected transportation ecosystem where gravity-fed heavy vehicles subsidize urban transit, which powers neighborhood EV charging, which supports micro-mobility - turning every vehicle into part of the energy solution.
One Page:
The Problem
Transportation consumes massive energy while grid infrastructure struggles with peak demand. Meanwhile, energy is wasted daily: heavy vehicles braking downhill, trains stopping at stations, vehicles sitting idle. Each transportation segment operates in isolation, missing opportunities to share and balance energy loads.
The Solution: Four-Tier Energy Network
TIER 1: Heavy Industrial (Net Producers)
Mining trucks and trains on downhill routes generate surplus energy through regenerative braking
Example: eDumper (123-ton electric truck) generates more energy than it consumes, feeding excess to grid
Fortescue's Infinity Train eliminates 82M liters diesel annually while producing net energy
TIER 2: Urban Transit (Distribution Hubs)
Every subway/light rail station becomes an energy hub capturing braking energy
Barcelona: 41% of train power from regenerative braking, powering 25 stations + EV chargers
440M annual passenger trips = continuous energy generation and distribution
TIER 3: Personal EVs (Mobile Storage)
Bidirectional charging turns vehicle fleets into distributed batteries
China deploying 5,000 V2G stations by 2027; 100M EVs = 1 billion kW capacity by 2030
Owners earn revenue through energy arbitrage while stabilizing grid
TIER 4: Micro-Mobility (Efficient Last Mile)
E-bikes, scooters, monowheels charge from neighborhood hubs
Minimal energy needs filled by transit regeneration overflow
Complete the zero-emission journey from heavy industry to doorstep
How Energy Flows
Morning: Industrial vehicles descend loaded → generate surplus → charge urban transit + neighborhood stations → power morning commute EVs and micro-mobility
Midday: Transit braking during rush hour → feeds station amenities + street-level chargers → charges parked EVs + micro-mobility fleets
Evening: EVs discharge to grid during peak demand → stabilize grid → earn owners revenue → recharge overnight during off-peak
Continuous: Smart systems balance loads in real-time, routing energy where needed most
The Business Case
Proven Results:
eDumper: 50,000+ liters diesel saved annually, generates net energy
Fortescue: $80M annual cost savings projected
Barcelona: $8.6M investment, 4-5 year payback through energy savings
China V2G: Early adopters earning $200+ in days
Market Opportunity:
350M EVs expected by 2050 = 24 billion kWh annual storage capacity
Every city with transit + topography can implement
Existing infrastructure (subway systems, industrial routes) already has electric backbone
Why Now?
Technology proven at every tier (eDumper since 2019, Barcelona since 1980s, V2G scaling now)
EV adoption accelerating globally
Energy storage costs dropping
Grid modernization creating bidirectional infrastructure
Climate urgency demanding transportation solutions
The Vision
Transform transportation from energy consumer to energy producer. Every vehicle, from 123-ton mining trucks to e-scooters, participates in an intelligent energy network. Heavy vehicles on favorable terrain subsidize light urban transportation. Transit systems power neighborhoods. EVs stabilize the grid. Micro-mobility completes emission-free journeys. The result: Self-powering transportation that reduces emissions, generates revenue, and turns physics—gravity, mass, momentum—into our advantage.
Next Steps
Phase 1 (2025-2027): Deploy industrial regenerative systems + expand urban transit programs + V2G pilots
Phase 2 (2027-2030): Scale V2G nationally + integrate micro-mobility + unified standards
Phase 3 (2030+): Full ecosystem integration + smart grid management + global adoption Target Cities: Hilly metros with transit systems (San Francisco, Hong Kong, Pittsburgh, Lisbon, Seattle) + mining regions with elevation-based operations
-30-
All my adult life I’ve had three sayings which inform the way I think:
We remain alert so as not to get run down, but it turns out you only have to hop a few feet to one side and the whole huge machinery rolls by, not seeing you at all. - Lew Welch
Quite clearly, our task is predominantly metaphysical, for it is how to get all of humanity to educate itself swiftly enough to generate spontaneous behaviors that will avoid extinction. - R. Buckminster Fuller
the war that matters is the war against the imagination
all other wars are subsumed in it. - Diane di Prima
I imagine we can educate ourselves swiftly enough to transition our existing fossil fuel transportation system to a regenerative electric system more swiftly than most would believe and that the whole huge machinery that rolls by will be powered by a much more efficient, maybe even close to net zero energy system.
Another saying I’ve picked up along the way from Walt Kelly’s Pogo: We are surrounded by insurmountable opportunities.
Happy Merry New
Wednesday, November 05, 2025
100% Clean, Renewable Energy and Storage for Everything
On October 29, 2025, Mark Z Jacobson, Professor of Civil and Environmental Engineering, Stanford University, gave a succinct one hour lecture to Elders Climate Action (https://www.eldersclimateaction.org) on 100% Clean, Renewable Energy and Storage for Everything
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=YOXwMb3kPBk
Dr Jacobson has been designing 100% renewable energy systems using wind, water, and solar [WWS] for countries and states most of this century and reality is quickly catching up with his calculations. The speed of change is accelerating as battery costs and new/old energy storage techniques come into use to provide 24/7 power, for all intents and purposes.
Here are my notes:
electrifying everything brings demand for total energy down 54.2%
19.8% through higher efficiency in Building Energy [BE] & Internal Combusion Engines [ICE]
4.1% in electric industry
13.1% heat pumps
10.6% eliminating mining for fuel, processing, transporting fossil fuel and uranium
6.6% efficiency beyond BAU
10% of the energy we produce goes into mining, processing, & transporting fossil fuel and uranium. Bill McKibben wrote in Here Comes the Sun (my notes at https://solarray.blogspot.com/2025/09/notes-on-here-comes-sun.html): "Forty percent of the world’s ship traffic, for instance, consists of moving coal and gas and oil back and forth across the ocean..."
electric and fuel cell vehicles reduce energy requirements by 75%
which is almost a 20% reduction in total demand
Leveled cost of electricity 2023 (IRENA [International Renewable Energy Agency] 2024)
fossil fuels $100/MWh
utility PV $44/MWh
onshore wind $33/MWh
onshore wind $75/MWh
hydro $57/MWh
Onshore wind is a third of the cost of fossil fuels and utility PV is less than half. They have also been the fastest growing source of new generation and jobs, growing year by year.
14 countries with electric generation 95-100% WWS 2023
12 USAmerican states with consumption 49-100% WWS Q324 -Q225
Transition world to 100% WWS
creates 28 million more jobs than lost
requires only 0.18% of land
avoids about 7 million air pollution deaths per year
slows then reverses global warming
stabilizes the global grids
The economics of renewables are now so overwhelming that the energy transition we need to deal with much of our greenhouse gas pollution problems is happening, accelerating, and, seemingly, inexorable.
We just have to recognize what is happening before our eyes.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=YOXwMb3kPBk
Dr Jacobson has been designing 100% renewable energy systems using wind, water, and solar [WWS] for countries and states most of this century and reality is quickly catching up with his calculations. The speed of change is accelerating as battery costs and new/old energy storage techniques come into use to provide 24/7 power, for all intents and purposes.
Here are my notes:
electrifying everything brings demand for total energy down 54.2%
19.8% through higher efficiency in Building Energy [BE] & Internal Combusion Engines [ICE]
4.1% in electric industry
13.1% heat pumps
10.6% eliminating mining for fuel, processing, transporting fossil fuel and uranium
6.6% efficiency beyond BAU
10% of the energy we produce goes into mining, processing, & transporting fossil fuel and uranium. Bill McKibben wrote in Here Comes the Sun (my notes at https://solarray.blogspot.com/2025/09/notes-on-here-comes-sun.html): "Forty percent of the world’s ship traffic, for instance, consists of moving coal and gas and oil back and forth across the ocean..."
electric and fuel cell vehicles reduce energy requirements by 75%
which is almost a 20% reduction in total demand
Leveled cost of electricity 2023 (IRENA [International Renewable Energy Agency] 2024)
fossil fuels $100/MWh
utility PV $44/MWh
onshore wind $33/MWh
onshore wind $75/MWh
hydro $57/MWh
Onshore wind is a third of the cost of fossil fuels and utility PV is less than half. They have also been the fastest growing source of new generation and jobs, growing year by year.
14 countries with electric generation 95-100% WWS 2023
12 USAmerican states with consumption 49-100% WWS Q324 -Q225
Transition world to 100% WWS
creates 28 million more jobs than lost
requires only 0.18% of land
avoids about 7 million air pollution deaths per year
slows then reverses global warming
stabilizes the global grids
The economics of renewables are now so overwhelming that the energy transition we need to deal with much of our greenhouse gas pollution problems is happening, accelerating, and, seemingly, inexorable.
We just have to recognize what is happening before our eyes.
Subscribe to:
Posts (Atom)